Mr. XXXXX,
Greetings from the occupied territory of Coloradostan.
Greetings from the occupied territory of Coloradostan.
I am a long time reader and first
time responder to the blog. I am an agricultural economist and read Woody's
perspective with interest, as I am sure many did. I just examined USDA's crop
progress report from this afternoon. Much progress was made in the 18 primary
corn producing states. We are now 71 percent planted versus the previous five
year average(which is skewed by last years data) of 79 percent. Woody's home
state of Ohio, about which he's was particularly alarmed is now 74 percent
planted vs. 58 percent for the five year average. To be clear his quote of 12
percent planted on 12 May 2013 is in error as the latest report shows 28
percent planted last Sunday and 71 percent last evening. We are now further
along in corn planting than we were in both 2009 and 2011.
His disdain for USDA is a little
troubling as they do a far better job than the ag department of any other. Are
they perfect? Certainly not, but as one of my mentor always said, "but
they are official!". Common wisdom may hold for common corn
varieties but that isn't what is being planted in the US. Mote than half of
this year's planted acreage will be stacked gene varieties and nearly 90
percent will be some form of biotech variety. Stacked gene varieties accounted
for only 1 percent in 2001. Even if we lost the 8 percent we are behind vs the
five year average it would still be the fifth largest corn planted acreage in
US history.
Corn price haven't responded or
rallied because the acreage number is record large and even with conservative
yield estimates corn ending stocks for the 2013/14 crop are expected to more
than double to the largest corn surplus since the late 1980s. The renewable
fuel standard will keep corn prices from approaching prices seen for the
1987/88 crop but they are still expected to drop by 25 to 35 percent. Just
wanted folks to know before they loaded the boat so to speak. I'd buy some if I
didn't have any but wouldn't lay in my entire needs of a lifetime.
Most respectfully, - D.W. in Colorado
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