Spring Outlook
NOAA (National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration) issued the three-month U.S. Spring Outlook
today (3/21/13), stating that odds favor above-average temperatures across much
of the continental United States, including drought-stricken areas of Texas,
the Southwest and the Great Plains. Spring promises little drought relief for
most of these areas, as well as Florida, with below- average spring
precipitation favored there. Meanwhile, river flooding is likely to be worse
than last year across the country, with the most significant flood potential in
North Dakota.
"This outlook
reminds us of the climate diversity and weather extremes we experience in North
America, where one state prepares for flooding while neighboring states are
parched, with no drought relief in sight," said Laura Furgione, deputy
director of NOAA's
National Weather Service. "We produce this outlook to help
communities prepare for what's likely to come in the next few months and
minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods. A Weather-Ready Nation hopes for the best,
but prepares for the worst."
The U.S. Spring Outlook
identifies the likelihood of spring flood risk and expectations for
temperature, precipitation and drought. The outlook is based on a number of
factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil moisture,
streamflow, precipitation, Pacific Ocean temperatures and consensus among
climate forecast models.
After a year of
reprieve, the Red River of the North between eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, and the Souris River in North Dakota have the potential for moderate
and major flooding. Devils and Stump Lakes in northeast North Dakota have a 50
percent chance of rising approximately two feet, which would flood 20,000 acres
of farmland and roadways.
The melting of
late-season snow may cause minor to moderate flooding in the upper Mississippi
River basin, including southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern
Missouri. The tributaries in the plains of the upper Missouri River basin,
specifically along the Milk River in eastern Montana, the Big Sioux River in
South Dakota and the Little Sioux River in Iowa may also see minor to moderate
flooding. With significant frozen groundcover in these areas, spring flood risk
is highly dependent on rainfall and the speed of the snowmelt.
Areas along the middle
Mississippi, lower Missouri and Ohio River basins have already experienced
minor flooding this year and the threat of minor flooding will continue through
the spring. These basins include portions of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois,
eastern Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. Minor flooding also is possible
for the lower Mississippi River basin and in the Southeast, including portions
of Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Georgia.
Above-normal
temperatures this spring are most likely across most of the continental U.S.
and northern Alaska. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the Pacific
Northwest and extreme northern Great Plains. For precipitation, odds favor
wetter-than-normal conditions in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely in much of the West, the
Rockies, parts of the Southwest, much of Texas, along the Gulf Coast and
Florida. Hawaii has an enhanced chance of being cooler and drier than
normal.
Fifty-one percent of the
continental U.S.--primarily in the central and western regions--is in moderate
to exceptional drought. Drought conditions are expected to persist, with
new drought development, in California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, Texas,
and Florida. The outlook favors some improvement in the Midwest, the northern
and central Great Plains, Georgia, the Carolinas, and northern Alaska.
"Weather can turn
on a dime, so it's important to stay tuned to the daily weather forecast.
Spring weather, such as tornadoes and flash floods, develop quickly and require
preparation and vigilance," added Furgione. Get ready for spring weather
threats - buy a NOAA Weather Radio, bookmark www.weather.gov to
check your daily forecast, and visit FEMA's ready.gov website
for preparation and safety information.
The entire link is at: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130321_springoutlook.html
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