Predictable versus problematic

       First the definitions. All this is prompted by the recent school murders in Connecticut, but really is something I have been thinking about for decades.

            And the easy definition first.  By "problematic", I suggest that things like murders have all been around since time immemorial, and always will be around. There is little we as a society or culture can do to prevent these many unconnected and seemingly random murders. They happen, unfortunately. And often we can, in hindsight, see the connecting links, and each story is different.

            And now the harder definition second. By "predictable", I suggest things like pandemics or wars or financial collapses or dumbing down a population or single parenthood usually results in predictable outcomes that are adverse to our futures. Now we are often quick to blame elected politicians, and they are a usual suspect; but really, at least to me, it is culture or society that often is the real cause of the predictable outcomes.

            Here's a few examples. These days we all want to restore wetlands, and have laws and regulations and policies that make this happen. But one can reasonably predict that wetlands breed mosquitoes that will bring back mosquito borne diseases that are not known these days. Just ask the people in Florida about dengue fever, for example.  As another example, we routinely treat our dogs in our kennels better than we treat our homeless humans, often mentally ill. The policies and practices that got us to this point began about a half century ago.  Another example is the downsizing of our military, which usually means doing more with less. But one can also predict both accession and retention rates will begin to suffer in the future, and we won't be able to reliably man and maintain the equipment we have, all with consequences to we new world USA people, like a small war starting. My last example is on the financial side of things, and if my grandchildren can't afford a house payment because they have to work first just to pay government interest payments, then that is probably predictable today. In this example, I would probably default, and that brings another set of predictable adverse impacts to my grandchildren and their Families.

            Fortunately, we already have solutions, today, if we want to use them. Now if we can't solve all the problems of the world, we certainly can solve some of them, or at least try. Today's status quo does not have to continue forever, and never really does. The method in evolving to another status quo is usually called change, usually the vote in the new world USA. In other places with other forms of governments, change can happen to, unfortunately often more violent that the voting method. And in almost all cases, it usually takes wise and savvy leaders, at all levels, to make this change happen. And, again, we already have that solution today, if we choose to use it.

            And change is often good, but can be bad, too. Just look at the mess we are in today as another example of bad change.