Japan Steps Up as
Regional Counterweight
Japan has long
struggled to define its position in the world. Its two decade-long economic
slump destroyed pretensions of becoming Asia's dominant power, while the rise
of China dethroned Japan as the world's second-largest economy and raised the
specter of a non-liberal hegemon of Asia. Now Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has
embraced the role of regional counterweight to Beijing. If he succeeds, Asia
may resemble a more normal region of sovereign actors. If he fails, he may
exacerbate tensions and even help precipitate armed conflict. It is a risky yet
potentially transformative gamble.
Mr. Abe laid out his
vision at last weekend's Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, promising Japan's
"utmost support" for Southeast Asian nations facing [Chinese]
coercion by unnamed powers over disputed maritime territory. He said that Japan
"intends to play an even greater and more proactive role" to maintain
peace and stability in Asia.
A primary plank of his
policy is to rekindle Japanese relations with India. Mr. Abe was the main
official guest at India's Republic Day in January. Tokyo and New Delhi agreed
at that time to conduct bilateral naval exercises, and India has invited Japan
to participate in the Malabar maritime exercises alongside the U.S. and
Australia.
This revitalized
cooperation has been embraced by new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who
seeks to build the countries' growing economic ties. Yet the true impetus is
strategic, providing both Japan and India with a powerful partner on China's
flank. Each has an interest in freedom of navigation and worries about Chinese
designs on parts of its territory.
A second prong is to
support Southeast Asian nations embroiled in disputes with China. Tokyo has
given 10 patrol vessels to the Philippines to help prevent further Chinese
seizure of Philippine territory or interference with administrative control
over disputed shoals, and Vietnam will also receive Japanese-made ships as soon
as they are built. Mr. Abe visited all 10 countries in the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations last year and is pushing greater cooperation among
Australia, the U.S. and Japan.
The Japanese leader is
also redefining his country's broader security policies. He has unveiled plans
to end the longstanding ban on "collective self-defense" so that
Japanese military forces can aid friends under attack—and, most importantly,
work more closely with the United States. Mr. Abe has stated that the alliance
with Washington can be effective only if Japan is able to help defend U.S.
ships and military personnel from attack by states like North Korea.
Public opposition to
expanded military activities abroad may be Mr. Abe's greatest obstacle to
making Japan a "normal nation," meaning one that removes onerous
restrictions on using its military, even for peacekeeping purposes. Yet he is
betting that domestic opinion will come around given understanding of the
immediate threat from North Korea
and China's less immediate but far more serious challenge to Japanese
interests.
Mr. Abe has adopted
the rhetorical tack of claiming that everything Japan does is to support
international law. The implication, of course, is that China is undermining
international law and norms of behavior—in contrast, for example, to Indonesia
and the Philippines peacefully resolving their maritime border dispute, as Mr.
Abe noted at the Shangri-La Dialogue. This variant on "naming and
shaming" is designed to start isolating China throughout the region.
Beijing often helps Mr. Abe make his case, as when Chinese fighter jets flew
dangerously close to Japanese surveillance planes over the Senkaku Islands last
week.
The Abe gambit to
reshape Asia is just beginning, and much will depend on how successful his
domestic economic plans pan out. A Japan that remains economically stagnant
won't have the resources to expand its military or to serve as a credible
political alternative to China in the region.
But if Japan's economy
can grow with its geopolitical ambitions, Asia may have an alternative to
Chinese hegemony—provided also that the U.S. stays engaged in the region to
prevent Beijing from filling in any vacuum in great-power influence. The risks
of antagonizing China are becoming more readily apparent, but Japan's most
dynamic leader in a decade has decided that his country will no longer be a
bystander to history.
Mr. Auslin is a
resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a
columnist for wsj.com.
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