Japan Emerges From
Security Isolation
By Michael Auslin in
the Wall Street Journal
Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe took a major step toward changing Japan's security
relations when Japan and Australia, after long negotiations, agreed to jointly
develop stealth submarine technology. In doing so, Mr. Abe hopes to achieve
three goals: Deepen Japan's security cooperation with countries other than the
United States, allow Tokyo to take advantage of the global defense industry and
make Japan a more attractive potential partner for capitals other than
Canberra, all the while presenting Japan as a regional counterweight to China.
For both countries,
submarines are a particularly potent part of their arsenal. Since the
Australian and Japanese navies are relatively small, they must rely on advanced
asymmetric weapons such as submarines to counter the quantity of potential
enemy forces. Japan has close to twenty diesel-electric submarines, and
Australia is planning on building a dozen new subs to replace its current six
older submarines.
Both countries also
depend on global trade routes, and thus are increasingly focused on maintaining
access to the maritime commons through strategic choke points north of
Australia or in the East China Sea. Sharing submarine technology will make both
countries more central to responding to regional crises and preserving
stability in Asia.
For Mr. Abe, though,
the agreement has greater meaning. First, he is attempting to shake up Japan's
six-decade security posture by developing new strategic partners for Tokyo.
This allows Tokyo to focus on and stress its own agendas separately from
alliance talks with Washington. Not dominating U.S.-Japan security talks with
mention of bases or status of forces agreements may mean that Japanese defense
planners can focus on increasing their activities abroad, including joint training,
exercises, and even contingency planning. That would, in turn, increase the
range of options Japan can present to Washington for alliance-based actions.
Second, the
Tokyo-Canberra agreement is a big step toward opening Japan to the global
defense community. Until last year, when Mr. Abe revised the ban on exporting
arms, Japan was largely isolated from development and production of defense
technology. This meant that Tokyo's defense procurement was not only more
expensive than would be otherwise, but that Japan's arms makers were also
locked out of many opportunities to gain new technology, such as stealth for
aircraft.
Now, Tokyo is testing
the waters on cooperation that will benefit its own research labs and defense
contractors. The submarine agreement can be a model for future collaboration
with technologically advanced countries in Asia and even Europe, where Mr. Abe
has also sought to increase relations with NATO countries. It could also give
Japanese defense firms access to a rapidly growing arms market in Asia and
elsewhere, where their quality will be attractive, even though they will have
to become more competitive.
Finally, the agreement
showcases Japan as a potential security partner for other nations. A key
objective for Mr. Abe is to enhance the Japanese relationship with India.
Showing how well Tokyo can work with a partner like Australia may encourage New
Delhi to consider greater cooperation, and can induce other governments, such
as in Singapore or Hanoi, to reach out.
It is easy to see this
move as directed against Beijing's increasingly threatening behavior against
the Senkakus or in the South China Sea. Mr. Abe made as much clear at his talk
at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore this month. Yet his plan is larger than
just countering China. It is to make Tokyo an increasingly vital part of
political, security and technological cooperation regionally and globally.
Ultimately, the
submarine agreement with Australia could make Japan seem like a normal security
player in Asia, and one with whom it is natural for smaller nations to partner
with on various issues. That would end the anomalous situation of the world's
third-largest economy being largely isolated from regional security and
political relationships.
Mr. Abe will have to
work to achieve his goals. He must carry through on his promises to
reinvigorate the economy and unreservedly join free-trade pacts. Japan cannot
expect to be a political partner but an economic outlier.
By offering himself as
a strategic partner, he will also have to respond to requests for help and
potentially deeper engagement. That means convincing Japanese lawmakers and
ordinary citizens that it is in their interest to do so. That will require a
national dialogue on Japan's role in the world that has not yet occurred. Mr.
Abe will find that leadership means being prepared to sacrifice some his own
goals in order to prove his bona fides to others. That alone could change the
perception of Japan around Asia for the better, and force Beijing to reconsider
its own coercive actions.
Mr. Auslin is a
resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a
columnist for wsj.com.
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