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Sunday, February 17, 2013


The muddle through scenario
       Much has and is being written these days about the end of the world as we know it. 
            This has happened before, too. Even the Army in WWI, and the Navy in WWII, graduated people early from their Academies anticipating an upcoming war, just as examples.
            The one common idea I read and hear is planning and trying to make it, like survive until things get better. The period of time is often one to two years, and up to a decade for things to get better. One other common theme I read and hear is that no one can reliably forecast what might happen, like from the status quo continuing to returning to cave man days, to include the estimates of the "time needed to get better". One other common theme seems to be an emphasis on Family and some friends in whatever they do to survive, if times get hard. I even read that some people will try help their neighbors, "as best they can".
            Now being a trained Marine, I have tried to worse case things, like plan that way.  Unfortunately, this means people will have to live like expeditionary Marines, and that I know that will be impalpable to many Americans, at least at the beginning of times, if they get hard. So be it. And fortunately to me, a lot of people already kind of live that way, and I have lived among them in my past, which helps me in my thinking and listening and attitude and experience.
            So one scenario I imagine is what I call the "muddle through scenario".  Said another way, we will keep doing what we know how to do as best we can, and sort it when it happens. Often that will include ideas like keep putting band aids on the status quo, and hope for the best in results.
            In this scenario, we will still have public electricity and all its benefits...on a rolling basis, like rolling blackouts or rolling brownouts. If you don't know what that means, look it up. While you're at it, look up triage, too. Triage is a medical idea, and in combat it means sorting hurt people out into three piles. Pile one will live and be patched up to go back to fight some more; pile two may live with time to heal; and pile three is beyond reasonable help; and should just be allowed to die in peace. Said another way, it is the idea of creating priorities during hard times, like a battle. Yep it is an ugly subject.
            So in regards public electricity I can imagine in a "muddle through scenario" applying the idea of triage, like establishing priorities for restoring public electricity.  And I can also imagine restoration of public electricity may occur in stages, like from no electricity to rolling electric service, to 100% service.
            Who knows, and of course it will depend on the situation. That idea can be both geographical, like urban and rural, and even what infrastructure exists to be fixed up, and last, just where you live. And of course, it depends on our governments' ability to pay people to do this kind of so necessary work. After all, they have to survive, too. And they have Families, too.
            All this is an example in a "muddle through scenario".
            And in this scenario, and all scenarios, I admire our human ingenuity and resilience, which is why we have been so successful on this earth. This innate ability is to be applauded.

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