Warm and well fed, or
hungry in the dark?
By Viv Forbes
Which is worse - gradual man-made global warming
or sudden electricity blackout?
Alarmists try to scare us by claiming that man's
activities are causing global warming. Whether and when we may see new man-made
warming is disputed and uncertain. If it does appear, the world will be
slightly warmer, with more evaporation and rainfall; plants will grow better
and colonise some areas currently too cold or too dry; fewer old people will
die in winter and sea levels may continue the gradual rise we have seen since
the end of the last ice age. There may even be a bit more "green" in
Greenland. There is no evidence that man's production of carbon dioxide is
causing more extreme weather events. Any change caused by man will be gradual
and there will be plenty of time to adapt, as humans have always done. Most
people will hardly notice it.
What is certain, however, is that global warming
policies are greatly increasing the chances of electricity blackouts, and here
the effects can be predicted confidently - they will be sudden and severe.
Localised short-term blackouts can be caused by
cyclones, storms, fires, floods, accidents, equipment failure or overloading.
People will cope with them. The more widespread blackouts, caused for example
by network collapse or insufficient generating capacity, will have severe
effects.
All modern human activities are heavily
dependent on electricity. Blackouts will stop lifts, trains, traffic lights,
tools, appliances, factories, mines, refineries, communications and pumps for
fuel, water and sewerage. People will be trapped or stranded in trains, ports,
airports, lifts, hotels, hospitals and traffic jams. ATM's, credit cards and
supermarket checkouts will not work. Cash, cheques, IOU's and pocket
calculators will be required to buy anything.
Immediately a blackout occurs, those with
emergency generators, fuel or batteries will start using them.
But within a very few days, batteries will run
flat, emergency fuel supplies will be exhausted, food supplies will disappear
from stores and pumped water will not be available. Intensive dairies,
hatcheries, piggeries and feedlots will all face critical problems in keeping
their animals alive and cared for.
If the blackout is extensive and prolonged,
looting will infect the big cities and then spread to country areas. People who
are old, sick, incapacitated or alone will be forgotten as able-bodied people
focus on feeding and protecting their own.
The real threat to humanity today is not the
theoretical dangers from gradual man-made global warming. A far bigger real
danger is the growing threat to reliable electricity supplies from deep-green
climate policies.
The most reliable electricity supplies come from
coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, geothermal or oil. Misguided politicians and
uncompromising nature are conspiring to ensure that few of these will be
available to generate Australia's future electricity.
The carbon tax and renewable energy targets
threaten the financial viability of using coal, gas or oil to generate
electricity. Banks and investors will not risk their capital on new
carbon-powered stations dependent on an unstable and polarized political
environment. And the declining profitability of existing stations under the
carbon tax and mandated market sharing makes it risky and uneconomic to spend
money maintaining existing aging stations.
The same green zealots who plot to destroy carbon
energy will also work to prevent the construction of new nuclear or hydro
plants in Australia. And Australia's geothermal resources, being generally deep
and remote, are unlikely to provide significant electricity for decades.
We are thus being forced to rely on fickle
breezes and peek-a-boo sunbeams to generate expensive and intermittent
electricity. And it will not be economic to continue building backup gas plants
that are run below capacity or sit idle, earning insufficient income as they
try to fill the unpredictable production gaps in the supply of green energy.
The margin of supply safety will disappear.
Therefore, if we continue to allow green zealots
to dictate our electricity generation, blackouts are inevitable. Britain and
Germany already face this grim prospect.
All actions have consequences. We cannot
continue pouring billions of dollars of community savings down the
climate-change sink-hole, without starving our essential infrastructure. We
cannot keep adding taxes and political risk to traditional electricity
generators without reducing new investment in real base-load generating
capacity. And we cannot keep adding unstable solar and wind elements to our
electricity network without adding greatly to electricity costs and the risks
of network failure.
When the lights fail, and the supermarket
shelves are cleaned out, we will return, at great cost and after much misery,
to cheap reliable continuous electricity using coal, gas or nuclear fuels.
Gaia worshippers will find that "Earth
Hour" will not be such fun when it becomes "Earth Week".
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