Judging intentions and capabilities

In war and politics one would like to divine the opponent’s intentions. This is most difficult, and often a distraction of energies and time.

The wizened individual will focus on the opponent’s capabilities, since it is easier to confidently research and measure. This information can provide “actionable” intelligence. Those with military exposure will recognize the principles, but they also apply in the political arena. After all, war is supposed to be an extension of politics by other means.

So I come to national party politics in the USA today. The traditional problem of deriving the real reason vice the good reasons is alive and well. And to evaluate any effect, we need to look at its effect, not the rhetoric behind it (from Vasko Kohlmayer). And never discount the part crime, money, and personal power plays in all human societies. Last there is a particular American flavor, or naivety, to all this cultural process. Most of us think as much about freedom as breathing air (author unknown); we think flush toilets and forced air heat are a right, not a privilege; and we think good intentions are just as important as results.

Can we still have the wool pulled over our eyes? Yes. But the window of opportunity is closing.

So what are the capabilities of the Democratically controlled House and Senate? They can try pass bills and send to the President the same bills to cut off funding for anything they “oppose”. They can try pass “non-binding” resolutions that may have great political impact at home and to our foreign enemies. They can control Committees. They can conduct investigations ad infinitum. They can try over come Presidential veto’s. They can better run a campaign plan that they think enhances their chances in the 2008 elections, Presidential and Congressional. They can act as a Bully Pulpit with the cooperation of a compliant media.

What are the weaknesses in the capabilities of the Democratically controlled House and Senate? Their majorities are razor thin, especially in the Senate. Many of the 535 members of Congress have their own agendas which do not necessarily agree with the Democratic leaders. Policies and agendas opposing President Bush are not a legislative plan for our country. Any successful vote is subject to Presidential veto. They do not control the voting publics’ access to information and their Democratic Party internal actions like they used to. They depend on our future vote.

The neophyte might just add up the preceding balance sheet of pros and cons, and be happy or sad depending on their political persuasion.

Well, I also am a political neophyte because I care more about my Nation than I do the Democratic Party, in this case. The cons list is big enough. I would not want to be a Rahm Emanuel, a Democratic Presidential candidate, or a Democratic strategist right now. To paraphrase a James Carville line, it’s the voters, stupid. And that is just one weakness.