Forecasts coming to roost.....an interim report

Forecasts coming to roost.....an interim report

I can usually guess what.  The when is often off.  Around five years ago I made some forecasts to a doctor in Cookeville, Tn.  Here's a quick interim report card in my words.

First and always, delving into how one thinks or their intents is bordering on psycho babble. It is easier to focus on capabilities, like what will result, like what capabilities the analyzed is capable of achieving or coming to pass.  My forecasts always adopt that method or point of view.

What I forecast was the following.

America in the person of Obama would not be elected because he was a lightweight, and America would recognize that. Well I was wrong. He was elected and reelected; and in the meantime he hired a bunch of lightweights who are making lightweight decisions. While most don't question the work ethic of the hired lightweights, many do question the work ethic of Obama, and the moral ethics of the whole crowd in general. One can even say in hindsight, dumbing down American education has consequences that are now coming home to roost.

I also forecast the rise of a new third political party, and that seems to be happening quietly and steadfastly. The two present National Parties have had their chance for a century, and look at the mess we are in these days. My forecast remains a new third party is arising, probably to show its mettle around 2020. This party is based on ideas, and not like most of the third parties in America's history that were often based on some powerful man's political objectives, and came and went as the political fortunes and interests of the individual ebbed and flowed.

I also forecast, and now dread, the coming national inflation of our money and purchasing power.  The practical effect on most of us will be a reduction of quality of life and spending power. Going to the beach for the weekend, for example, will cost more in the future that it does today for the same thing.  The effect on our Nation will be living within our means, like our considerable tax income. When people won't loan us money to supplement taxes, many gut wrenching effects will come to pass.  The obvious example is one loaning us say $10 billion dollars for a year with the expectation of getting it back plus interest of say $50 million. But if after one year, the initial $10 billion is worth only $9 billion, then nobody in their right mind would do a deal like that. Multiply that idea by all the variations, and one can forecast much financial turmoil coming.  For example, imagine wanting to buy a house to live in, and having to face interest payments bordering on 16%. I have as recently as four decades ago.

Now some wild cards have arisen along the way, too.

One is our unilateral disarmament that invites future real wars in the near future. One can even imagine the all volunteer army going away and a new old fashioned military draft emerging with today's politicians doing it. Are you vulnerable, or know someone who is?  I myself was draft motivated (I am age 66).

One is our growing isolation that is impossible to sustain in this interconnected world.

One is a growing dependence on entitlements in order to raise a family. What happens when entitlements can't be or won't be funded?

Another is the recurring attempt in a long line of failures of attempting to get governments in the business of charity and taking care of our fellow man as best we can.

Even one smart nurse is asking the question many are asking. What if many of the taxpayers are smarter than the government people who oversee the whole effort?