Torpor Before Temper: A Viewer’s Guide to
2014 and Early 2015
Now that the pre-fight
pugilism of 2016 has begun (Hillary
versus Rove—talk about heavy-armed
brawlers), let’s consider what President Obama and Congress may produce in 2014
and 2015.
The short answer is: not
much, and perhaps quite a lot.
The underlying politics
in both years is generally straightforward, but it will be a richer, spicier
stew in early 2015 if Republicans win back control of the Senate. More on that
in a moment.
For the remainder of
this year, Obama’s “Year of Action” will yield precisely what it has
already—incremental policy changes torturously wrapped in ever-more-garish spin
garb. The act will wear thin; Obama’s narrative, such as it is, will flatten;
and Republican anticipation for midterm gains—already running ahead of the
polls—will conspire against any high-profile (therefore risky) compromise with
the White House. That means the following for this year:
No comprehensive
immigration reform. There is no impetus
among rank-and-file House members to put together the component parts of a big
bill. The summer may see small-bore measures on border enforcement. There could
also be a move to encourage military
service for illegal immigrants.
But even the so-called Enlist
Act creates political
headaches for the GOP. Obama will continue to push immigration, and House GOP
leaders will delay the eulogy as long as possible, but the issue doesn’t just
look dead for the year. It is dead.
No minimum-wage increase
or temporary extension of emergency-unemployment benefits. Neither issue moves the polling needle in House
GOP districts—not even in swing districts. The price of extended jobless
benefits is approving the Keystone XL pipeline, a deal Obama won’t touch. And
there’s no dollar amount House GOP leaders will embrace for a higher minimum
wage.
The FISA bill has a
chance in the House. Floor action is
expected soon, and with bipartisan support in the Judiciary
and Intelligence committees,
the bill will likely reach the Senate with rare momentum. Also, the White House
has worked steadily and cooperatively with House GOP leaders on the bill.
Increasingly, Obama’s new head of legislative affairs, Katie
Beirne Fallon, is seen by top House
and Senate GOP leaders as the go-to person on legislative compromise. Fallon is
accessible, open to input, and viewed as a fair referee of policy debates.
Fallon and top GOP aides collaborated on some fine-tuning of the FISA reform
bill as it moved through the Judiciary Committee before recess.
Fallon's also made
headway on the water
resources reform bill that House and Senate leaders expect to pass this year. She's also making some progress on issues like
increasing highway
and mass-transit funding
(which will take longer to resolve). On infrastructure funding, Republicans may
eventually push for higher gasoline taxes (though not this year) and point to
higher user fees for TSA airport security in the two-year budget
deal negotiated by Sen.
Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., as precedent.
As should be clear, big
issues won’t be resolved—let alone tackled—this year. Smaller issues will be,
and Obama’s penchant for hitting singles
and doubles in foreign policy will
find its mirror image in Congress.
Now, a word about GOP
political expectations. House GOP leaders expect to gain 10 to 15 seats. In the
Senate, the map clearly favors the GOP. So does the overall political climate.
Analysts now reasonably ask only the size of the coming GOP
wave, not if one will
manifest.
Two notes of caution.
Voter intensity is running behind 2010 figures. The GOP intensity gap is still
sizable, and Obama fatigue among Democrats may be worse than it was before his
midterm “shellacking” of 2010. But intensity within the GOP is not what it was
at this time in 2010. This is one statistic to monitor. Also, a quick check of
15 polls measuring generic ballot preference in May of 2010 revealed a better GOP climate than the 15 most
recent generic-preference polls this
year. The GOP led the
generic ballot in nine of the 15 polls in May of 2010. It leads five of the 15
this year. The aggregate GOP advantage in polls that the party led in May of
2010 was 5.2 percent compared with 2.2 percent this year. The GOP advantage in
all 15 polls in May 2010 was 2.5 percent (adding in the polls that Democrats
led or that were tied). This year, the GOP advantage across all of the 15 most
recent polls was 0.73 percent.
I’m not arguing that
Republicans will fail to win the Senate, or disputing the presence of a rising
GOP wave. I’m merely pointing out that voter intensity and generic ballot
preference are running behind where they were in 2010. Those factors must be
taken into account as the GOP imagines an ever-expanding horizon of potential
Senate victories.
But let’s assume the GOP
does take back the Senate. What does that mean for 2015?
It means Obama and
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be fuming. House Minority Leader Nancy
Pelosi will be looking for a graceful way to exit and to prepare her caucus for
a newer generation of leaders (sorry, Steny).
But first, there will be
early and fascinating fisticuffs elsewhere. And I’m not talking about
leadership elections. Those will be a crushing bore, as will
committee-chairmanship ascensions. And the lame-duck session won’t touch
big-ticket items. Forget Trade Promotion Authority or immigration. There will
be a continuing resolution or possibly a short-term omnibus bill to fund the
government.
What will be interesting
is how Republicans—should they be victorious—deal with immigration. You can
imagine the quick formation of a House-Senate GOP task force on immigration
reform (the internal politics of who lands on this would make Game of
Thrones writers shiver). Whither the immigration politics of Sen. Marco
Rubio?
Then comes the budget.
The next Congress will have to take the next step after the Patty Murray-Paul
Ryan deal. And that means Republicans will have to write and pass budget
resolutions with an eye toward reconciliation—giving the long-dormant issue of
tax reform at least a theoretical life-line (expect new Ways and Means Chairman
Ryan to seize it).
But the need for the new
Congress to deal with the budget and the lame-duck continuing resolution or
omnibus means three very likely GOP presidential contenders—Sens. Rand Paul,
Ted Cruz, and Rubio—will have their first policy primary just as they are
preparing finance committees and grassroots outreach in Iowa, New Hampshire,
South Carolina, and elsewhere. Watching Republicans write a budget that unites
Cruz—as it very well might—with Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, will be worth the
price of admission.
By spring 2015,
Washington will know a great deal about the presidential prospects of the GOP’s
Beltway-bound (as in attached-to) senators and where Obama wants to fall on the
legacy index (he can go bipartisan-big on immigration, taxes, and highways or
stay small with his 2009-2011 all-Democratic harvest) and how Republicans run
Congress while also trying to win a presidential election for the first time
since 2004.
Either way, you won’t
need a DVR this year. But you’ll want one early next year.
The author is National
Journal correspondent-at-large and chief White House correspondent for CBS
News. He is also a distinguished fellow at the George Washington University
School of Media and Public Affairs.
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