Forward thinking applied to Syria

Now that the Secretary of Defense has stated General Pace was not nominated for a second term as Chairman, JCS, because the hearing would drag us backward in history when we only need to go “forward”, many will take him at his word. Most also think DC Senate politics had much to do with it.

Let us go to “forward” to Syria, as it has been at minimum a thorn in our Iraq war, and more realistically, a major combatant as a staging base, sanctuary, and complicit ally of Iran. It also accepted Iraqi WMD’s in 2003 if you believe the stories and the maps. As it appears Iran is becoming more overt in the regional war it has been waging for decades, any overt US response will have to include Syria because of its Iraq involvement, hence we plan ahead as “forward” thinking voters using only open sources.

As Nation-states go in this Arab part of the world, Syria has less going for it than most other regional nations. It’s natural resources are more limited, and its business and financial power is more limited than most of its neighbors. Its political power is enhanced by its strategic location, both in ancient and modern history. This same location has made it a refugee location for Iraqis that exceeds the immigration problems we know about in the US. Last, while Syria is a thorn in the US side, it appears its strategic interest is still in dominating Lebanon, its historic focus area. Recently, Syria has been killing anti-Syrian Lebanese politicians with car bombs, it seems. Even the UN is investigating with good cause.

“Forward” thinking requires knowing who runs Syria today. Things are not always as they appear or seem, especially applied to the present leader who assumed the Presidential job in 2000 from his father, who died in office. Many think there is an “old guard” left over from the former President who maintain their privileged positions within the 1963 Bathist base. Remember that Saddam Hussein was from the same Bathist Party. Some even think the country is still run by a coterie of old loyalists, with the present President acting as a figurehead. Also thought is that the present President has slowly been doing a slow dance to assert himself and take control using time and caution so as not to provoke many of the old elites sponsored by his father. This also makes some sense given the problems of transferring power between father and son in dictatorships. Add in that the present President is a medical doctor by training with a good British background and wife, who though Syrian by culture, was born and raised in Britain, and the opportunity for change is different from when his father ran Syria.

In all cases of who runs Syria, all “forward” thinking suggests Iran today has much to say about Syria’s involvement in Iraq. Mostly it is a case of money talks with the slow dance dragged in. But with Iran overextended financially, and Syria does have its own national interests, the regional war started by Iran and coming into an overt phase will provide an opportunity for the present President of Syria to realign his nation and his political control. This realignment will be different from the status quo. “Forward” thinking suggests Arab Sunni, vice Persian Shiite, monies will come into play, under the table. And in this is one possible regional solution, with Syria moving away from Iranian support of all its Iranian objectives. The US is not the only player in this region, so full of oil money as a political and diplomatic tool. The other players, like the Saudi’s will have much to say and do.

Well, if Secretary Gates and the implied Senate politically considers “forward” thinking as important, then he and the Senate can live with it, too. And we voters can use the same “forward” logic, and come up with our own conclusions. After all, the voters are in charge, not the Executive appointees or the elected Senators.

Last is the idea of trust. Most voters are too busy too keep up with all this. We have to trust those we elect, or change those we elect. Keep this is mind, even when “forward” thinking about Syria.