The coming Iranian War is getting closer

The weeks-old reports about the Iranians planning a military campaign to influence the USA Congress this summer are starting to show some legs. Not only should the USA be worried, but also Iran’s regional enemies. Their enemies are mostly Arabs, mostly Sunni, or even some are from internal Iranian unfriendly tribes. And this military campaign by the Iranians is a step up from the past, and much more overt with easily detected trails than in the past. That the media is a factor in war is also astounding if one buys the premise for an Iranian campaign.

With these possible enemies, why would Iran’s leaders act in such a way. After all they are small fish in a big sea, even if they are regionally big fish in a small sea. The answer is classically historical. It is misjudgment fed by decades of successes as they have been allowed to get away with murder and ransom, literally. What has worked in the past should work in the future, based on their vast political experience with the west, and the west’s diplomatic support of nation-states. And since we don’t know what two top house democrats where saying in Syria and Egypt recently in private meetings at the same time, the politics may even be more confusing as to what the USA says and thinks. (The Egyptian visit and meetings by House Majority Leader Hoyer was kept quiet by most while Speaker Pelosi was in Damascus.)

Complicating things for them and us is the question of just who is in charge there. Is it the theocratic mullahs, their puppet president, or the private Army of God. The answer to that question is known to none, to include themselves. In any given short time period, the answer is probably all of them. The decision for a summer campaign was probably initiated by the theocratic rulers and being implemented by their private Army of God. And a last complicating problem for them is economic, both internal and external. That they are still $21 million behind on payments to the Russians for the work at the nuclear Bushehr Plants is a good clue. The budget is around $1 billion.

Complicating things for us is the question of Arab Persian Gulf States’ authorizations to use our air bases in the region. Most have already said “no”. The use of the “stan” states is not known. This is also a classical problem using land basing. So our complicated answer for air power employment in such a coming war is the US Navy carriers, Diego Garcia, and mainland USA basing with aerial refueling prompted by great distances and over flight accommodations. Turkey will be a big political player in all this, probably.

Trying to avoid such a war has two obvious courses of action which are hopefully being used both by the USA, and the regional Persian Gulf States. One is diplomatic, and the other is military. First the military. The USA is using covert and overt military actions to both interrupt the summer military campaign by the Iranians and to intimidate the theocratic mullahs. Independently, regional Arab states are doing what they do best, working with Iranian opposition internal tribes to distract and disrupt the Iranian government. The Iranians cannot afford to ignore internal opposition, either organized by outsiders, or just as likely, naturally risen from all the failed economic policies that promotes the present leaders foreign policies. The second effort is the diplomatic. This is mostly overt financial efforts to decapitate the regime’s funding combined with the almost worthless efforts at imposing sanctions by the UN and the main customers. Like all campaigns, some things stick and some don’t, so only time will tell what works best in tamping down the Iranians.

Most arm-chair generals typical and most naïve comments have to do with “invading” Iran, as in occupy it with troops we do not have. Nothing could be dumber, mostly because we don’t have the troops. But even more importantly is recognizing the Iranian people are natural allies, and will self organize to run and administer their country if the yoke of dictatorship is thrown off earlier through actions by either USA, Persian Gulf States, or both. The resulting Iranian State will be unique to their tribes, and may not even be to our liking, but it will be much more democratic that the dictatorship that plans the summer offensive today. Along the way somebody will bomb and set back the Iranian nuclear program, unless all the covert things work. Either way, the decision on future nuclear actions will be put off until the present government of Iran is superceded.

There are wild cards. Perhaps the Iranians will succeed? Perhaps the Congress will cave anyway, and the President will go along? Perhaps the Russians and/or Chinese will assert their own national interests and skew the whole process as if the Iranians are influencing their foreign policies? These are scary times.

Whiles all times can be called scary, the classical situation of the theocratic mullahs using huge misjudgments to unleash this coming war are the scariest. One expects our national leaders at the executive and congressional levels to never let this happen. No small group of foreign, egomaniacal brigands should ever get their way in our Country.