What possible “good news” could
there ever be about nuclear destruction coming to America, whether in the form
of dirty bombs, terrorist nukes, or ICBM’s from afar?
In a word, they are all survivable,
at least for the vast majority of American families, IF they know what to do
beforehand and have made even the most modest of preparations.
Tragically, though, most Americans
today won’t give much credence to this good news, much less seek out such vital
life-saving instruction, as they have been jaded by our culture’s pervasive
myths of nuclear un-survivability.
Most people think that if nukes go
off then everybody is going to die, or it’ll be so bad they’ll wish they had.
That’s why you hear such absurd comments as “If it happens, I hope I’m at
ground zero and go quickly.”
This defeatist attitude was born as
the disarmament movement ridiculed any competing alternatives to their
ban-the-bomb agenda, like civil defense. The activists wanted all to think
there was no surviving any nukes and that disarmament was your only hope. The
sound civil defense strategies of the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s have been derided as
being largely ineffective or, at worst, a cruel joke. Since the supposed end of
the Cold War in the 80’s, most Americans saw neither a need to prepare nor believed
that preparation would do any good. Today, with growing prospects of nuclear
terrorism and nuclear saber rattling from rogue nations, we see emerging among
the public either paralyzing fear or irrational denial. People can’t even begin
to envision effective preparations for ever surviving a nuclear attack. They
think it is totally futile, bordering on lunacy, to even try. Ironically, the
disarmament activist’s legacy, regardless of their noble intent, has rendered
millions of Americans even more vulnerable to perishing from nukes in the
future.
The biggest surprise for most
Americans, from the first flash of a nuke being unleashed, is that they will
still be here, though ill-equipped to survive for long, if they don’t know what
to do beforehand from that very first second of the initial flash onward. For
instance, many could readily survive the delayed blast wave via the old “duck
and cover” tactic, which is very good news IF they knew to do it quick, as the
flash appeared. Unfortunately, most don’t, and even fewer know how to later
survive the coming radioactive fallout, which could eventually kill many times
more than the blast. However, there is still more good news possible, as well
over 90% of those potential casualties from fallout are avoidable, too, IF the
public was pre-trained through an aggressive, national, civil defense
educational program. Simple measures taken immediately after a nuclear
detonation, by a pre-trained public, can prevent agonizing death and injury
from radiation exposure.
The National Planning Scenario #1,
an originally confidential internal 2004 study by the Department of Homeland
Security, examined the effects of a terrorist nuke detonated in Washington,
D.C.. They discovered that a 10 kiloton nuke, about 2/3rds the size of the
Hiroshima bomb, detonated at ground level, would result in about 15,000
immediate deaths as well as another 15,000 casualties from the blast, thermal
flash and initial radiation release.1 As horrific as that is, and even without
“duck and cover”, the surprising revelation here is that over 99% of the
residents in the DC area will have just witnessed and survived their first
nuclear explosion. Clearly, the good news is most people would survive that
initial blast.
However, that study also soberly
determined that as many as another 250,000 people could soon be at risk from
lethal doses of radiation from the fallout drifting downwind towards them after
the blast. (Another study, released in August 2006 by the Rand Corporation,
looked at a terrorist 10 kiloton nuke arriving in a cargo container and being
exploded in the Port of Long Beach, California. Over 150,000 people were
estimated to be at risk downwind from fallout, again many more than from the
initial blast itself.2)
The good news here, that these much
larger casualty numbers from radioactive fallout are largely avoidable, too,
only applies to those pre-trained beforehand by a civil defense program in what
they need to do before it arrives. Today, lacking any meaningful civil defense
program, millions of American families continue to be at risk and could perish
needlessly for lack of essential knowledge that used to be taught at the grade
school level. The public at large, businesses, and all of our children’s
schools urgently need to be instructed in civil defense basics again, like how
most can save themselves by immediately employing the “duck and cover” tactic,
rather than just allowing an impulsive rush to the nearest windows to see what
that “bright flash” was across town, just-in-time to be shredded by the glass
imploding inward from that delayed shock wave blast.
Most also don’t know, even when
caught in the open, that just lying flat reduces by eight-fold the chances of
being hit by debris from that brief, three second, tornado-strength shock wave
blast that, like lightning and thunder, could be delayed arriving anywhere from
a couple seconds to two minutes after that initial flash.
Remember the February, 2013
Chelyabinsk Russia meteor air burst? 1,500 people were injured, most from the
delayed shock wave exploding inward the window glass they were anxiously
scanning the winter sky through trying to see what/where the bright flash was
earlier. “A fourth-grade teacher in Chelyabinsk, Yulia Karbysheva, was hailed
as a hero after saving 44 children from imploding window glass cuts. Despite
not knowing the origin of the intense flash of light, Karbysheva thought it
prudent to take precautionary measures by ordering her students to stay away
from the room’s windows and to perform a duck and cover maneuver. Karbysheva,
who remained standing, was seriously lacerated when the blast arrived and
window glass severed a tendon in one of her arms; however, none of her
students, whom she ordered to hide under their desks, suffered cuts.” 3
“Duck and cover”, while
under-appreciated by most Americans, has long been known as a simple and
effective shock wave blast life-saver, even as early as Hiroshima (15 KT) and
Nagasaki (22 KT). “According to the 1946 book, Hiroshima, in the days between the Hiroshima and Nagasaki
atomic bombings in Japan, one Hiroshima policeman went to Nagasaki to teach
police about ducking after the atomic flash. As a result of this timely
warning, not a single Nagasaki policeman died in the initial blast.
Unfortunately, the general population was not warned of the heat/blast danger
following an atomic flash because of the bomb’s unknown nature. Many people in
Hiroshima and Nagasaki died while searching the skies for the source of the
brilliant flash.” 4
Robert Trumbull– the New York
Times Pacific and Asia war correspondent from 1941-79 who had been in Iwo
Jima– documented more double-bombing survivors in his 1957 book Nine Who Survived Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Personal Experiences
of Nine Men who Lived Through Both Atomic Bombings5. Below are two of
their experiences and their ages on 9 August 1945:
Tsutomu Yamaguchi, 29, was a
Mitsubishi ship designer who died in 2010 at age 93 (Trumbull pp. 28 and 109):
“‘Suddenly there was a flash like the lighting of a huge magnesium flare,’
Yamaguchi recalls. The young ship designer was so well drilled in air-raid
precaution techniques that he reacted automatically. He flung his hands to his
head, covering his eyes with his fingers and stopping his ears with his two
thumbs. Simultaneously he dropped to the ground, face down. … ‘As I prostrated
myself, there came a terrific explosion’ … [The left side of his face and arm
facing the fireball were burned, and he returned to Nagasaki, experiencing the
second nuclear explosion on the sixth-floor of the headquarters office of
Mitsubishi.] Spelling out the danger of flying glass, he urged them to keep
windows open during an air-raid alert, and at the instant of the flash to seize
at once upon any shelter available … the second A-bomb confirmed young
Yamaguchi’s words, exploding in a huge ball of fire about a mile away.
Yamaguchi’s lecture [just an hour earlier!]… was not lost upon his colleagues.
With the young designer’s words still fresh in their minds, they leaped for the
cover of desks and tables. ‘As a result,’ said Yamaguchi, ‘my section staff
suffered the least in that building. In other sections there was a heavy toll
of serious injuries from flying glass’.”
Masao Komatsu, 40, was hit by a
falling beam in a Hiroshima warehouse and was on board a train in Nagasaki when
the bomb fell (Trumbull, p101): “…the interior of the coach was bathed in a
stark, white light. Komatsu immediately dived for the floor. ‘Get down!’ he
screamed at the other passengers. Some recovered sufficiently from the daze of
the blinding light to react promptly to his warning. Seconds later came the
deafening crack of the blast, and a shock wave that splintered all the windows
on both sides of the train. The passengers who had not dived under the seats
were slashed mercilessly from waist to head by glass flying at bullet speed.”
While terrorist nukes would likely
be smaller than the Hiroshima (15 KT) bomb, in a modern super power conflict
today, the nukes would be larger, most in the 100 KT to 500 KT range. The
unsurvivable “ground zero” lethal zone of a 500 KT nuke airburst, would extend
out to about 2.2 miles. The blast wave would arrive at that 2.2 mile marker
about eight seconds after the flash and then continue on causing death or
injury from there out about to the nine miles mark, putting at grave risk then
an additional at least 15 times more souls than were already lost within that
unsurvivable 2.2 mile ground zero radius. That’s IF they don’t know to “duck
and cover” in those 8 to 20+ seconds after the flash and before the blast wave
arrived. In other words, with “duck and cover” taught to and employed by all,
there could be over 15 times fewer casualties from that blast wave!6
Clearly, prompt “duck and cover”
maneuvers, upon any bright flash suddenly appearing, is lifesaving good news
everyone should be taught! They need to also be taught, after the blast, that
attempting to outrun that downwind drift of the fallout is strongly
discouraged. It only works if the wind direction, speed, and distance from
ground zero is known and assures plenty enough time to escape exposure in the
open well before the fallout would arrive along their, likely clogged, route. They
must also be taught that sheltering-in-place is usually the better option, as
the radioactive fallout loses 90% of its lethal intensity in the first seven
hours and 99% of it in two days. For those requiring sheltering from fallout,
the majority would only need two or three days of full-time hunkering down, not
weeks on end, before safely joining an evacuation, if even still necessary
then.
That’s more good news as an
effective expedient fallout shelter can easily be improvised at home, school,
or work quickly, but, again, only IF the public had been trained beforehand in
how to do so, as was begun in the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s with our national civil
defense program.
Unfortunately, our government today
is doing little to promote nuclear preparedness and civil defense instruction
among the general public. Regrettably, most of our politicians, like the
public, are still captive to the same illusions that training and preparation
of the public are ineffective and futile against a nuclear threat.
The past administration’s Department
of Homeland Security head, Michael Chertoff, demonstrated this attitude in 2005
when he responded to the following question in USA Today:7
Q: In the last four years, the most
horrific scenario– a nuclear attack– may be the least discussed. If there were
to be a nuclear attack tomorrow by terrorists on an American city, how would it
be handled?
A: In the area of a nuclear bomb,
it’s prevention, prevention, prevention. If a nuclear bomb goes off, you are
not going to be able to protect against it. There’s no city strong enough
infrastructure-wise to withstand such a hit. No matter how you approach it,
there’d be a huge loss of life.
Mr. Chertoff failed to grasp that
most of that “huge loss of life” could be avoided if those in the blast zone
and downwind knew what to do beforehand. He only acknowledges that the
infrastructure will be severely compromised with too few first responders
responding. Civil defense pre-training of the public is clearly the only hope
for those in the blast zone and later in the fallout path. Of course, the
government should try and prevent it happening first, but the answer he should
have given to that question is; “preparation, preparation, preparation” of the
public via training beforehand, for when prevention by the government might
fail.
The current Obama administration
also fails to grasp that the single greatest force multiplier to reducing
potential casualties, and greatly enhancing the effectiveness of first
responders, is a pre-trained public, so that there will be far fewer casualties
to later deal with. Spending millions to train and equip first responders is
good and necessary, but having millions fewer victims, by having also educated
and trained the public beforehand, too, would be many magnitudes more effective
in saving lives.
The federal government needs to
launch a national mass media, business supported, and school-based effort,
superseding our most ambitious public awareness campaigns like for AIDs, drug
abuse, drunk driving, anti-smoking, and so forth. The effort should percolate
down to every level of our society. Let’s be clear; we are talking about the
potential to save many times more lives than those saved by all these other
noble efforts combined!
Instead, Homeland Security continues
with a focus primarily on…
#1 – Interdiction– Catching nuclear
materials and terrorists beforehand and…
#2 – Continuity of Government (COG)
and casualty response afterwards for when #1 fails, while the vital key
component continues to be largely ignored…
#3 – Continuity of the Public while
it’s happening. This could be achieved via proven mass media civil defense
training beforehand that would make the survival difference then for the vast
majority of Americans affected by a nuclear event and on their own, from that
first initial flash and blast on through those critical first couple of days of
the highest radiation threat, before government response has arrived in force.
This deadly oversight will persist
until those crippling myths of nuclear un-survivability are banished by the
good news that a trained and prepared public can, and ultimately has to, save
themselves. More training of the public beforehand means fewer body bags
required afterwards. It’s that simple.
The tragic After Action Reports
(AAR’s) of an American city nuked today would glaringly reveal then that the
overwhelming majority of victims had perished needlessly for lack of this
basic, easy to learn and employ, life-saving knowledge. Re-launching civil
defense training is an issue we hope and pray will come to the forefront on the
political stage, with both parties vying to outdo each other proposing national
civil defense public educational programs. We are not asking billions for
provisioned public fallout shelters for all, like what already awaits many of
our politicians. We are just asking for a comprehensive mass media, business,
and school-based re-release of the proven practical strategies of civil defense
instruction in the form of a modernized version of what we used to have here
and that had been embraced by the Chinese, Russians, Swiss, and Israelis.
There is no greater, nor more
legitimate, primary responsibility of any government than to protect its
citizens. Furthermore, no greater condemnation awaits that government that
fails to, risking millions who then perish needlessly. We all need to demand
renewed public civil defense training, and the media needs to spotlight it by
questioning officials and politicians, until the government corrects this
easily avoidable but fatal vulnerability.
In the meantime, though, don’t wait
around for the government to instruct and prepare your own family and
community. Educate yourself today, and begin establishing your own family
nuclear survival preparations by reading the free nuke prep primer– “What To Do If A Nuclear
Disaster Is Imminent!”
Then, post links to, or pass copies
of, this “Good News” article to friends, neighbors, relatives, fellow workers,
churches, and community organizations with a brief note attached saying simply:
“We hope/pray we never need this, but just-in-case, keep it handy!” Few
nowadays will find that approach an alarmist one, and you’ll be pleasantly
surprised at how many are truly grateful.
Everyone should also forward copies
to their local, state, and federal elected representatives, as well as your own
community’s first responders and local media, all to help spread this good news
that’s liberating American families from their paralyzing and potentially fatal
myths of nuclear un-survivability!
The Bottom Line: We could easily
reduce by 90% the lethality of all Chinese, Russian, North Korean, and Iranian
missiles and any terrorist nukes, too, quick as the public is trained up in
blast and fallout civil defense basics again. That is very good news!
______________________________
1
https://info.publicintelligence.net/DHS%20-%20National%20Planning%20Scenarios%20March%202006.pdf
2
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2006/RAND_TR391.pdf
3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor#Injuries_and_damage
4
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_and_cover
5
http://www.amazon.com/Nine-Who-Survived-Hiroshima-Nagasaki/dp/B001NWPV9E
6 http://www.radshelters4u.com/
From the Survival Blog
No comments:
Post a Comment