By Eric Jorgensen in Opinion and Cicero Magazine
As the United States defense budget has been
cut over the last several years, the Congress has been very disappointed with
proposals from the military services for readjusting their force structure.
This disappointment generated the National Commission on the Structure
of the Air Force (NCSAF) –
after the President’s Budget for Fiscal Year 2013 proposed cutting 3,900
Regular Air Force members, 900 Air Force Reservists, and 5,100 Air National
Guardsmen, along with about 50 Regular Air Force aircraft, 50 Reserve aircraft,
and 130 Guard aircraft.
Guard advocates, including members of
Congress, decried the cuts as too targeted on the Guard. Taking the numbers at
face value, the casual observer will sympathize, especially considering that
Regular Air Force end strength started at 332,800 and Air National Guard end
strength started at only 106,700. A similar uproar has followed comparable PB15 Army force structure proposals – and a National Commission on the Structure
of the Army will likely ensue, along with similar commissions to examine the
Navy and the Marine Corps.
The senior leaders of the Department of the
Air Force explained that their force structure logic was to
trade quantity for quality, in order to be an affordable “smaller, but superb,
force that maintains the agility, flexibility, and readiness to engage a full
range of contingencies and threats.” The senior leaders of the Department of
the Army explained that their force structure logic is to
reduce end strength as rapidly as possible, while still meeting operational
commitments, in order to concentrate remaining funds on rebuilding and
sustaining “a force capable of conducting the full range of operations on land,
to include prompt and sustained land combat.”
The Army is planning to take risk in its
modernization programs, while the Air Force is taking risk in near-term combat
capacity in order to invest in its much delayed recapitalization programs.
Either way, however, call this the math of affordable combat capability, where
you increase the Active Component percentage of an overall smaller force to be
more ready and responsive with what’s left.
Reserve Forces Policy Board math counters the above formulation by asserting
that Reserve Component forces across the four services consume only about 16%
of the Defense budget, even though they represent 39% of military end strength.
The simple math is telling. Unfortunately, it fails to account for the
difference in routine Active and Reserve Component output short of full
mobilization, and for significant Active Component investments in Reserve
Component force structure (to include capabilities research, development,
testing, evaluation, and acquisitions, as well as training, education,
oversight and other management infrastructure).
Enough about combat. What about homeland
security? For homeland security math, we’ll turn to Terry Branstad, the
governor of Iowa and co-chair of the Council of Governors, which was created by the National Defense
Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 to serve as a mechanism for governors
and key federal officials to address matters pertaining to the National Guard,
homeland defense and defense support to civil authorities. Governor Branstad
has argued that even the Air Force’s proposed reduction
of Air National Guard F-16s and A-10s would have significant impact on state,
regional and national emergency preparedness, because of the loss of “the
corresponding personnel and affiliated support capabilities, such as
communications and medical response.” Call this the math of subsidized dual-use
domestic responsiveness.
Dual-use capabilities are capabilities the
military departments possess with applicability to combat and homeland security
requirements. When those capabilities reside in the National Guard, they are
within easy reach of the governors of American states and territories. But
despite the fact the Blackhawks offered as an alternative are more useful
during domestic responses, the National Guard Association of the United States
(NGAUS) argues against the Army proposal to move all Guard
Apache and Kiowa aircraft to the Regular Army, because it would render the
Guard unable to augment the Army as a true reserve for rotary-wing attack and
reconnaissance capabilities. Call this militia math, where an operational
National Guard in all or most capability areas allows for a smaller standing
military, “as our Founding Fathers intended.” The kicker is that our Founding
Fathers couldn’t possibly have envisioned modern American national security
demands for which a militia simply can’t deliver the capacity needed for
forward presence, rapid response, and high-rate rotational demands.
The Abrams Doctrine is often posited to be a
corollary to militia math. In this interpretation of General Creighton Abrams’
Total Force approach to managing Army force structure, a significant reliance
on the Reserve Component falls in line with the Founding Fathers’ opposition to
a large standing military, by making obtaining popular support before
significant military mobilization a limitation on use of military force.
Considering Abrams’ actual intent, this interpretation of the Abrams Doctrine
is a stretch. It is also ironic, given that the Constitutional
establishment of the Militia was intended not as a hindrance, but rather to provide
federal access to all able-bodied male citizens fit for military service in all
states and territories, as the need arose.
The final kind of force structure math I’ll
mention here is the Congressional math that comes with the jobs, economic
impact, constituent happiness, votes, and even the prestige associated with having
military – and especially National Guard – units in a member’s district. Some
observers may consider this last form of force structure math politically
self-serving, but providing for their constituents is exactly what members of
Congress are elected to do.
Unflappable Mathematicians Needed
All the forms of force structure math I have
listed here are valid and important. The challenge is to balance the equations
– and all their associated risks and benefits – for the greater common good,
even though there is much less defense funding to go around while dangers at
home and abroad simultaneously abound.
Our American military men and women are the
ultimate professionals, regardless of component or service. They need senior
component and political leaders who will honor their sacrifice and devotion to
duty by dispassionately applying all the force structure math I’ve described,
in order to build and sustain the full range of military capabilities and
forces our country needs now and in the future. General Abrams and our Founding
Fathers expect no less.
After retiring as an Air Force colonel in
2013, Eric Jorgensen served the National Commission on the Structure of the Air
Force as a Senior Research Analyst. In his final military assignment, Eric was
Chief of the Total Force Enterprise Management division in the Air Force
Directorate of Strategic Planning in the Pentagon. He is a pilot with more than
4,000 military flying hours in aircraft including the F-111F, the F-15E, and
the KC-135R.
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