How will the USA handle civil war in China?

The recent Shanghai stock market drop and numerous open source reports* have brought up the question again. The overwhelming amount of Communist Party and military corruption and nepotism, the rampant industrial pace of development, the resulting environmental disasters way beyond our worse robber barons (let me be specific about one – child birth defects), and the growing disparities between the majority rural people and the minority urban class and Party and military people exploiting the economic boom, are going to pop sometime. The frictions are both modern, and historical.

That the Shanghai Stock Market was a gambler’s game that mostly enhanced the “haves” finally came to an end, or at least a major correction. I’ll defer to those who write about all this to say it better in economic and insider graft terms. I note most other Asian Stock Markets acted differently from that of Shanghai’s.

All the conditions for a civil war are just right these days. The Western “realists” who support the status quo for all its expected outcomes that they can deal with are to be replaced by those who just have to deal with coming civil war in China. Someone will “have to deal with the mess” left by others. Most civil wars start with a spark somewhere. Somehow Shanghai will be included in all this.

There are three probable outcomes when civil war comes to China.
#It will last at least one decade, and probably go nuclear. The downwind radiation patterns will depend on where the nukes go off and the weather at the time, but it is scary in all possibilities.
#Another probable outcome is one of immigration to the USA, Canada, Australia, and the rest of the world. Today Chinese immigration to the USA is number two behind Mexico, and just ahead of India. But just as the Hungarian revolt of 1956 and the fall of Vietnam in 1975 prompted big spikes in immigration to the USA, so will any civil war in China.
#Business will continue, but contracts and arrangements will be between local Chinese entities such as warlords or provinces, and their intended customers. American and international businesses already have much experience around the rest of the world in this problem area.

The political consequences in the USA should follow typical Party line divides as both National Parties seek some advantage out of this terrible set of events. And as in many other cases, the older status quo types in the US will do what they know, for they know not what to really do. Those that end up having to deal with this “mess” will be more practical. Some will want us directly involved, some will prefer a more “benign neglect” approach in guiding a USA policy or set of policies. For example, how involved should we be in the massive pollution problems, or the water rights disputes that often go with them. In all cases, people are uncomfortable with change, so it will be a trying time, especially at the beginning.

Chinese history predicts a civil war sometime. It is a matter of when, not if. One hopes our government has “gamed out” how to at least begin dealing with civil war in China. Immigration surges come to mind immediately. Recovering or shifting manufacturing bases is right behind. If it happens before the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, how do we handle it? We do have our own National Interests, after all, and we hope our elected and appointed public representatives will do their part for us.

* Most open source reports are eastern based reports. There is little in western media reports on this subject.