The Coming Trial of Zhou Yongkang
As the Party winds down its investigation of
Zhou Yongkang, get ready for another high-profile trial.
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The South
China Morning Post reported today that
Beijing has begun briefing high-ranking officials on the Party’s investigation
into Zhou Yongkang, a former Politburo Standing Committee member and former
Minister of Public Security. SCMP writes that briefings “are customary at the
culmination of highly sensitive cases,” meaning that the Party might be
wrapping up Zhou’s case. If the Party decides to officially charge Zhou with
graft, he would be the highest ranking Party member ever prosecuted for
corruption.
There
have been rumors about a possible Zhou Yongkang investigation since 2012, ever
since the scandal surrounding Bo Xilai erupted. Bo was a political ally of
Zhou’s, and there were rumors that Zhou alienated himself from other leaders by
trying to prevent any punishment of his acolyte. Ever since then, the Party’s
nets have slowly tightened around Zhou. Investigators began probing current or
former high-ranking officials at each of Zhou’s power centers. In Sichuan,
where Zhou had served as party chief, former deputy governor Guo Yongxiang and
former deputy party chiefs Li Chongxi and Li Chuncheng were
targeted. Former vice-minister of public security Li Dongsheng is
also under investigation, as are several high-ranking executives from
the China National Petroleum Corporation, where Zhou used to be a senior manager.
When
the South China Morning Post initially reported that
Zhou was under investigation back in August 2013, its sources said that
“President Xi Jinping and his administration are determined to use the case to
galvanize the anti-graft campaign.” Targeting such a high-profile, high-ranking
Party official would certainly lend a new aura of legitimacy to Xi’s year-long
anti-corruption campaign. No previous leader has prosecuted a former Politburo
Standing Committee member. By doing so, Xi’s campaign would set a historic
precedent.
There
have also been rumors that Zhou is being targeted out of political motives. Some
of the more sensational rumors surrounding the case claim that Zhou opposed Xi
Jinping’s rise to power — and that he even tried to have Xi assassinated
[Chinese]. While that’s obviously a bit far-fetched, it’s not unrealistic to
assume that there was at least some political rivalry between Zhou and Xi,
particularly as the Bo case developed. Taking down Zhou might be intended to
serve as a warning to potential rivals by showing Xi’s consolidation of power.
“Xi can’t build his authority if he doesn’t fight a real big tiger during this
anti-corruption campaign,” a source told The Sydney Morning Herald.
Whatever
the motivation, it appears clear that Zhou is now firmly ensnared. Reuters reported back
in December that Zhou was under house arrest, and noted that he had not been
seen since October 1. In addition to his former aides, his son Zhou Bin is reportedly cooperating with
authorities. With the investigation reportedly drawing to a close, the
biggest remaining question is whether or not Zhou will be tried.
Such a
trial would be a major publicity coup for Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, and
would also lend an image boost to China’s court system. The trial of Bo Xilai
was used to similar effect. A commentary published in Xinhua
praised the “unprecedented openness and transparency in the trial of Bo Xilai.”
The article added, “Such cases involving senior officials once again
highlighted the application of the rule of law for every organization and
individual in the country, including CPC members, no matter how high their
posts.” It’s easy to imagine a similar narrative unfolding around a potential
Zhou Yongkang trial.
However,
there are risks as well. One interesting (but unsubstantiated) story from the
overseas Chinese-language Epoch Times claimed that recent stories about
the offshore financial accounts of Chinese leaders’ family members were the
result of political leaks — a warning from Zhou’s supporters to
Xi’s camp that “if you want to die, we’ll die together.” Zhou was
influential and a public trial might cause divisions within top Party
leadership. Of course, analysts made the same argument about
Bo Xilai, yet the Party proceeded with his trial.
There
are other risks. The Party might be reluctant to bring charges against Zhou in
court precisely because he was so high-ranking — revealing the extent of his
financial crimes could reflect poorly on the Party. Still, the SCMP article wrote
that “the amount of money involved in the case would be far less than some
reports have suggested.” That’s a possible indication that the Party will try
Zhou with charges involving sums of money large enough to convict him, but not
big enough to completely outrage the public.
Ever
since gaining power, Xi has continuously surprised foreign onlookers with his
control of the Party. It’s best at this point not to underestimate him. A trial
would be in keeping with the new, high-profile tack Xi is taking, both with his
own personal leadership and with the anti-corruption probe. Xi seems to have
realized that in the internet age, certain high-profile stories are guaranteed
to leak. Rather than keeping events quiet and handling them under the table, Xi
seems to prefer going public with a carefully controlled narrative.
To this
point, state media have remained silent about Zhou Yongkang but have not shied
away from covering the arrests of his former aides. His name is considered a sensitive word on the
Chinese internet, but the Chinese social media specialists at Tea Leaf
Nation wrote in December that
enterprising netizens were still finding ways to speculate on Zhou’s fate. We
saw the same mix of official silence and internet speculation during the early
stages of the Bo Xilai affair.
But
that state media silence was eventually broken. When the official announcement
on Bo’s crimes came out it was a doozy — Bo
was not only accused of embezzlement but of “seriously harming the interests of
the state and people.” That paved the way for a flood of Party-sanctioned
articles on Bo, his crimes, and the triumph of anti-corruption forces and the
rule of law. As the investigation into Zhou Yongkang winds down, look for a
state media response that advances a similar narrative. As with Bo Xilai, the case
of Zhou Yongkang is simply too big to brush under the rug. Xi will once again
gamble by going public.
The original post can be
found at:
http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/the-coming-trial-of-zhou-yongkang/
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