Playing the Iranian poker hand with our American lives

Many have been waiting patiently and expectantly for the Iranian soft revolution to evict the tyrannical theocrats running Iran since 1979. Many have thought this course of action was in American self-interest and still do. Most still think the Iranian people are friendly to American culture, though any soft revolution will likely produce new leaders less inclined to American culture than the people are.

Over the last two decades, the tide has shifted more towards an actual attack on the Iranian military structure, both regular military and/or their Army of God units, which are significant. This shift has focused on a short campaign without occupation, and either attacks the military in general, or just the nuclear facilities in particular. Over the last year or two, the rising concern over the probability of the Iranians building a nuclear device in the near future has even been amplified by the most alarming statements from the puppet president of Iran. And the alarm is not just in the USA and Israel, but throughout the entire region, and even India and China.

Also alarming is what appears to be classic cultural misunderstanding also amplified by decades of experience on both sides. The western side has emphasized containment, diplomacy, patience, and the tolerance of backdoor business deals. The Iranian side has emphasized duplicity sustained by good results, especially with proxies. Over confidence has occurred because every time they take an inch, the west gives a mile. The carrot has been offered, but never has the stick been overtly employed (with one exception in 1988 - Operation Praying Mantis).

Decades of events have only made matters worse. The Iranians announced last spring they would begin overt attacks in Iraq to counter the surge, with a stated goal of influencing the American congressional vote in their favor. And they conducted their campaign and are killing American servicemen, though the American political scene turned out differently. What a classic case of cultural misunderstanding and over confidence. Many westerners would say they are being stupid like Tojo and even Hitler, they just don't know it. And the western side is beginning to act like a person up against a wall with the Iranians in their face, and pretty confident any limited attack on Iranian military and Army of God will be the spark that gets the soft revolution going, and prevents any nuclear attack or threat of an attack by the present Iranian dictators.

It is a terrible state of affairs we have come to here in the USA. We’re damned if we do, and damned if we don’t. And I blame our national leaders, executive and legislative, over the decades. This is not a President Bush problem, this is a national problem. Nothing about the debate about Iraq should be considered in what we are stuck with in Iran. Many will do it, though. Articles about what President Bush should have done miss the mark that this Iranian situation has been building for decades, and again is a national problem, not an executive problem. And a national problem requires a national executive and congressional working-together response. Anything less will create another 2008 election wildcard.

Philosophically, postponing a decision in the end makes the costs of that decision even higher. The consequences of waiting longer for a soft revolution are balanced by the time allowed for the Iranians to build a nuclear weapon and use or threaten its use. If ever there was a high stakes poker game, this is one. And actually, one can say there are many players in the game, each using their own strategies and national interests. Most are familiar with the phrase “fog of war”. Well, the “fog of diplomacy” is just as thick. And unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences becomes more consequential as time goes on.