Hints of the broad regional war in the Middle East

The genie is out of the bottle again. Be nervous. The Israeli action in Syria is the big hint.

That little is reported says much about the effectiveness of Israeli secrecy, Arab reactions, and the USA distractions over Iraq. Yet there is much going on that will never be known to the public. Classified things usually have levels of lies within lies, so say a level 2 person blabs, he or she is blabbing what they know, which is probably a lie they think is “truth”. Another distracter is people’s desire to divine intent, which is most difficult and unreliable. Figuring out capabilities is easier, and more reliable. Yet a misinformation plan always appeals to those seeking inside scoop on intent. Like I said, we will probably never really know, mostly about intents. While there are many good reasons, there is always one real reason as to intent.

Here’s why an American should be nervous.

The Arab nations have not screamed like normal about the Israeli action. This suggests a much larger concern about Iranian expansionism than is reported here at home. The Arab national leaders do not have to be correct, just think they are correct. So be nervous about Arab Sunni actions against Persian Shiite actions in the region. Believe it or not, we are not the only player in this region, and despite all the debate in the USA and among our politicians, others may act with or without us. All nations have vital national interests, and the Israeli action in Syria has met quiet approval elsewhere in the region, if you trust the Arab reaction.

Another nervous factor is human in nature. Call it misjudgment, over confidence, or just plain cultural ignorance. The recent Bin Laden rant is such an example, be he alive or dead. Whoever did the rant is out of touch with American reality. Much the same applies to today as so many regional players think the USA is distracted by Iraq. Certainly they have a reason to think so. This is what makes these times most dangerous, as many wars are started by political leaders using misjudgment. Just use the judgments of Hitler and Tojo and the rest of the Japanese political leadership who took their regional nations into what became a world war that killed tens of millions of humans. We did not start the regional or world war, but were dragged into their wars, for good reasons, mostly in our national preservation. Be nervous because it can always happen again, and the times seem ripe again.

Another thing to be nervous about is the nuclear genie. When many despots get the “bomb”, and their engineers probably manage this technology with less safety than we do, terrible political and environmental things will come to pass. Just read about the areas relatively near now renamed Ekaterinburg as an example of poor Soviet standards. (Hint: google under soviet nuclear accidents). Or read about the Soviet nuclear submarine problems. It’s scary. The hint from the Israeli action is the planted speculation that the target now, or maybe in the future, will be either a delivery means or the WMD itself.

Last, be nervous about the USA leaders in the executive and congress, and their staffs, who collectively suffer from too many smarts and too little experience. Situations like this are too often what end up in wars. Call it cultural ignorance, call it being painted into a corner, call it inexperience. While there is no school for such leaders, there is the school of hard knocks, and the present leaders don’t have many who attended this school. Be nervous they may get us into a war they personally and probably will not show up for. Be even more nervous if these executive and congressional types avoid a congressional declaration of war debate. For lack of knowing what to do, they do what they know. That should make Americans nervous.