Just the facts please

The reported Israeli action in Syria has prompted much speculation since the facts are few.

The other Arab nations have not loudly objected like normal about the Israeli action.

Classified things usually have levels of lies within lies, so say a level 2 person blabs, he or she is blabbing what they know, which is probably a lie they think is “truth”.

Another distracter is people’s desire to divine intent, which is most difficult and unreliable. Figuring out capabilities is easier, and more reliable. Yet a misinformation plan always appeals to those seeking inside scoop on intent.

There was one reported Israeli action in Syria about 10 days ago. The exact target type and location is still publically unknown. Most guesses have the target in the more rural eastern Syria. There may have been more than one Israeli action. And the speculated target locations are spread over a very large area.

The action occurred in the night, well after midnight local time.

The winds at night tend to be calm. The prevailing winds in this area, when blowing, tend to be from the NW blowing towards the SE.

Speculation about a physical target (if there was one) ranges from WMDs (chemical, biological, or nuclear) to missiles to missile manufacturing equipment. Missile fuels, including SCUD fuels, tend to be toxic to humans.

The Israeli action alledgely included helicopter inserted commandos with laser designators, and airplanes with bombs. Most laser designators have a max effective range of 5KM (around 3 miles). Bombs can be GPS guided. GPS can be spoofed by local GPS spoof protection. GPS implies very good targeting locations are known ahead of time. Commandos with laser designators implies eyes on the ground providing later exact target locations for the bombs from the airplanes are needed.

Think of the possibility of dirty bombs and downwind contamination from WMDs or toxic missile fuels. All potential downwind contamination patterns go into Iraq and on to USA forces. All target locations guessed at so far are also either in the Euphrates River Valley or one of its tributaries. The Euphrates River later flows into Iraq past Bagdad and on to the Persian Gulf.

The best way to try contain possible contamination is to use precise targeting to have the target collapse unto itself. The best way to verify success or failure is to have commandos on the ground after the bombs are dropped. And any underground facility is easier to collapse unto itself than an above ground facility.

Much has been reported about a North Korean ship coming into the port of Tartus, Syria about three days before the reported attack. Its cargo manifest said concrete, but much is speculated about what it could have been. Tartus is also the proposed new basing location of the to-be restored Russian blue water navy in the region.

One of the speculated target locations is just along the Turkey-Syria border, which generally runs E-W. One of the speculated possible Israeli air attack routes to Iranian nuclear facilities is along this same border. Borders make great routes to attack along, since the opposition has to traditionally cross boundary coordinate, and by the time it is done, the action has moved elsewhere.

Strategic deception is part of warfighting. The allies did it in WWII to confuse the Germans as to where the main landings were to be, i.e., the main effort. The allies did it in Desert Storm to tie down many Iraqi forces to defend the beaches in Kuwait. The Israelis have confused the Syrians as to where to best place their new Russian made mobile anti-aircraft weapons, which are well thought of if you believe the Russian advertising.

Rehersals are still important to the militaries of the world, since all cannot be known about the adversary, all cannot be known about how the friendly forces work together, and the fog of war and Murphy are alive and well even after the best of planning.

There is always one real reason, and many good reasons. Intermixing all: attacks, deceptions, military censorship, rehersals, and the indirect approach, confounds the adversary.

That the past President of France in January of this year made a comment about nuclear retaliation, and the now President and his Foreign Minister are saying something similar, suggests they are responding to a reported nuclear threat to France.

Much has been reported about getting uranium from phosphates, a normal fertilizer. Syria has a lot of phosphates. But getting the uranium poison out of phosphates, and reprocessing uranium into a nuclear fuel are two different things.

The inter-relationship between Syria, North Korea, and Iran is not known from a public facts view. There is much speculation. Syria has absorbed over a million Iraqi refugees. How that affects politics locally is just speculation. The present leader of Syria is the eye-doctor son of the now deceased former dictator (d 2000). The present leader was the second choice until his brother was killed in an accident (d 1994).

The Israeli response to all this is an historical fact. Why is just speculation?