Do not count your chickens just yet, Iraqi style

This is difficult to write for two reasons. One is that I am normally an optimist. Second is that I can differentiate short term gain from long term loss. All this from a retired Marine and supposedly died-in-the-wool Attila the Hun. And I also recognize the vulnerability of being an arm-chair general and Monday morning quarterback. As a counter, I have some education and opinion about conducting small wars such as in Iraq, and a little education about focusing on core values, often called centers of gravity. And of course I like to write about what I think, having been taught by so many others.

Before going forward, I would commend two references to read sometime. One is the 1940 “Small Wars Manual” put out by the Marines and Navy, and the other is the original H.G. Wells book “Outline of History” published in the late 1920’s. They are linked to today’s times by the common theme of humanity, unfortunately too often affected by the low life thugs and criminals who wrap themselves in the cloaks of politics and religion. There are many other good references for the western reader, also.

That we have a successful “surge” going on suggests many things, mostly short term. The President replaced his team with more experienced people who have the advantage of hindsight. They include the new General, the new Ambassador, and the new CENTCOM commander, now reinvigorated with pro-consul like authority and a proclivity for it. None of this cooperation was mandated from D.C.; America lucked out by these people working together at their regional level. And Americans should admire and thank the initiatives of their fellow citizens who are working together to overcome all the problems out of D.C. to get the mission done. That Defense activated over a 100 reservists to fill quotas State could not fill is a good example. The lack of interagency cooperation in accomplishing the mission will come out in the end, and when exposed to the sunlight, will change many things for the better in America’s future, to include who we vote for and who these elected people appoint and hire. But in the meantime, it is admirable about the initiatives being taken by our fellow Americans.

All efforts need leaders. In the case of American wars, it takes political leaders, both executive and congressional. Sometimes are better than others, and we seem to be in an “others” time. Shifting domestic and foreign frictions is what we have politicians for, as in serve us. This is why this voting citizen and retired Marine is “nervous”. We are not being well served, mostly out of ignorance and grasping at straws.

All the great reports about the success of the “surge” in Iraq are masking other things that we should be worried about. For example, and it is time to name names:
Sheikh Khalid bin Mahfouz has been financing various forms of terrorism against the rest of the world. One has to give it to him, he has put his money where his mouth is, and has funded a campaign of Mosque building and recruiting and teaching new attackers for over a decade.
Most of the AQI types in Iraq are recruited and funded through Sheikh Khalid bin Mahfouz, and then funneled in through Syria.

The present “surge” strategy, as presented to the American public, suggests we will keep shooting these “ducks in a barrel” as quickly as they can be educated and funneled into Iraq. And we are doing very well. Thank goodness for a new leader and changes in the ROE’s. So this idea suggests a who will outlast who idea, the Skeikh’s oil based money against our American blood. If this idea is correct, then the Sheikh will probably win in the long term (using his money), while clearly losing in the short term. In the near term, we should kill him, and his family. Now that is a political decision. And make sure we decapitate his financial empire.

The present “surge” strategy also suggests we have done things smart in using proxies to do our work. The Sunni chiefs in Anbar taking care of AQI are the oft used example. And it is working, so good on us and good on them. In the same vein, are their more local and tribal objectives the same as ours in the long term?

The mainstream media suggests incompetence at the executive level over the four years, mostly in getting our government agencies to work together. What has been left out is the Congress’s responsibilities. Where are our leaders when we need them?

So back to counting our chickens, Iraqi style. Is the some total of what our executive and congress has done to date made us safer, or more worried about being able to wake up in the morning?