Translate

Monday, July 16, 2007

Why do we make the enemy ten feet tall?

They have serious problems, too.

The Iranians have started a hot war with the U.S. that they may win given a U.S. restraint strategy that we use. Normal diplomatic comments are to not attack them, even in self defense, as an attack will only unite them against the attacker, us. But how long does this take if it means Iran dominates the region, or takes out Tel Aviv with a nuclear weapon. This is not a cold war, but a hot war. Of course all this is predicated on the present small cabal in Tehran having unlimited time to conduct their strategy. If they were ten feet tall, they might have all this time, but they are not ten feet tall, and this small cabal can be easily replaced. What replaces them may not be any friendlier than to the U.S. than the present cabal, but think about it from the present cabal’s point of view, which is about their self preservation. And most arm chair generals assume any U.S. attack on Iranian safe havens (for the regional hot war they are fighting now in the open), or even the protected nuclear sites, include some kind of invasion and occupation. But suppose it was less, as in air and missile strikes, perhaps with some special operations type forces that just set back the enemy as well as send a message to the Iranian people that they are not the target. Now that would make the small cabal even smaller, given we can make the case that they started the hot war for their own imperial purposes.

And don’t forget the Iranians do not have inexhaustible funds. They have promised much to so many, but simply do not have the funds to meet their promises. Just ask Hamas in Gaza recently about $300 million promised but not paid. Or ask the Russians about a monthly payment of $20 million for their Bushehr nuclear plant work. Why should they be given time?

The Syrians are definitively not ten feet tall. Their present president got his job by nepotism, and now daily suffers from the problems associated with nepotism. He and his father’s minions still run things, mostly funded as Iranian proxies, which is a less than ten feet tall stature. The main strength of Syria is its strategic location, and that the U.S. treats them as a safe haven for all they things they do in their interests vis-à-vis Lebanon, and for the Iranian imperial interests is a policy only. Even Syria became the repository of the Iraqi WMD’s, and that is becoming a liability.

North Korea at best is two feet tall. One need only look at a night satellite photo of the earth to see how poor and badly off the country is do to the communist dictatorship and its economic policies and one wonders how the present dictator survives. Of course he got his job through nepotism, also.

The present fad country of the time period is China, and they too are not ten feet tall in any measure to include economically or militarily. Their expansion is so rapid it reminds many of the U.S. robber baron times, but they simply don’t have the political system in place to expand and protect its people. They are prime for a civil war, perhaps just a revolution, but either is coming soon, as in the next five years. Here’s two hints: severe environmental problems causing birth defects, and nepotism practiced by the ruling communist northern Chinese tribes.

There is at last Russia. As the former Soviet Union, much U.S. military education in the past made their military look ten feet tall. Then there were dissenting opinions based on just interviewing former conscripts, such as by Andrew Cockburn. And then I looked at really neat pictures and movies about Soviet capabilities, and I was intimidated. Later their abysmal performance in their Afghan invasion, and my observations of their equipment in the first Gulf War led me to understand the idea of just how short our enemies can be. Now history even adds in the poor state of their space and ballistic missile programs, and their nuclear navy programs, and I take more of what I read about Russian capabilities with a grain of salt.

Just look at now Russian aviation exports and again it is impressive, until you look at how many are still running in five years. The recent purchase of Mig-31’s by Syria, with Iranian financing and sharing is a good example of sounding fierce, and being a lamb. Earlier purchases of 1980’s Russian jets are all parked. This is definitely less than ten feet tall.

These days we have many enemies, some focused on the U.S., and some focused on western values in general. All are not ten feet tall, in fact, most are our size or smaller. They too have their own problems which I expect we exploit in all ways: diplomatically, financially, militarily, and propaganda wise. If we don’t use all means, then we are not professional enough, and need to hire (vote in) a new team.

We have been attacked and declared war on by regional powers before, to include Japan and Germany. It is happening again with Iran. We must fight back, or surrender. Measuring the enemy’s height puts things in perspective, since we are closer to ten feet tall than the Iranians.

Can this be multiculturalism applied to foreign policy? Are we all culturally equal, as in what has been made in the New World in America equal to the Old World in Iranian despots desire to return to some old past that they still run? Do we have to reduce our height from ten feet tall down to their height out of some academic principle or idea? Why? Do we have something worth fighting for?

The military has one idea we can use in this area. Try evaluate the enemy’s capabilities which is easier than trying to evaluate their intentions, which is difficult. Given all this, we can pick the time and place to act in our National Interest. And when we do, we should arrive ten feet tall. In the perfect world we would descend on Iran diplomatically, financially, and militarily. This will probably not happen. So fight back in a come as you are mode. Maybe we might seem nine feet tall, which is pretty tall.

No comments: