What comes after the global warming hokey passes into history?

Three forces will be in play. First is that of the eco-religious types. Second is the anti-western and anti-capitalist types who have adapted environmentalism as their means to an end. Last are the conservationists who also include the human impact factor, i.e., environmentalism is about humans and how we interact with the world.

There are two common denominators. The subject is complicated and not all the science is close to being known, especially about how humans try manage complex natural systems. Said in simple terms, we are poor at playing God. The other common denominator is the ignorance of the population and the media. At a minimum, a basic course in thermodynamics would help, but few take this course. About two years ago National Geographic magazine had a picture of a cooling tower with the steam arising from it. But the reporter labeled it as smoke, and even the editors let it pass. Now that is ignorance.

The eco-religious types will always be around because faith substitutes for science and facts. And so many end of the world scenarios can be wrapped in “mankind as the enemy” causes, especially if supported by cherry picked reports prepared by those who make a living doing research for a living. The US federal payments for global warming research today is somewhere between two and seven billion dollars, depending on which report to believe. This is big business. And while President Eisenhower is famous for his warning about a military industrial complex, the other half of his warning was about a science industrial complex. And like the waves washing ashore at the beach, different end of the world scenarios will come and go as has been going on in the past.

The anti-western and anti-capitalist types who have adapted environmentalism as a means to an end are a serious threat to western values and the future of humanity. If they can exploit the ignorance of most of the population and media, and implement any treaty such as Kyoto, then they will have gained traction. And too many are quoted as saying Kyoto is just a first step. Of course, politics in the west and most of the world provides a good balance as politicians (mostly western) set goals, and then immediately ignore them. And even the business green initiatives, a more trustworthy reference indicator, act in the best profit sense first, so there can be win-win solutions. Of course it does not take these anti-capitalist types to make this happen, though they may claim credit for what is happening anyway.

The conservationist group is a natural attractor for most citizens. This group always thinks about the human impacts as part of the reasoning process. This group always recognizes the balance between humans and the environment, and attempts to make rational decisions. While also suffering from the problems at playing God, at least humans are factored in. The best example for our US future is the impacts of the now off-limits impacts of the agriculture and timber industries. Agricultural water run-off of fertilizers and pesticides will come under attack sooner rather than later. The conservationist group is best prepared to devise policies that recognize we also need to eat, or make biofuel.

Predicting the future is impossible, but often tried. Counting on the human influence is usually the safe bet.

That the conservationist group is a natural attractor for most citizens will make it the main effort after the global warming hokey passes. Here in the US the most simple ideas to conserve will become popular. Just turning out the lights when one leaves the room like our ancestors did is one obvious example because it saves money. Changing the thermostat or using fans because it saves money is another example. Car pooling may come back for energy and home budget reasons. Agriculture practices about water run-offs will probably change. The whole point is there are common sense solutions for this group that puts things in balance.

One hopes this environmental future about after the global warming hokey passes does not become a national party issue, though certainly both parties will try to do so. If anything is a National Issue, this is one. Voting citizens must be ruthless in not letting this devolve into some party issue. Our National future and advancement is at stake.