Why fear the Iranian war in our future

Most of us don’t want war. Most of us don’t see any real national interest worth fighting for in the Persian Gulf region, other than oil and preservation of the status quo. And most of that oil is for our allies, to include France. We get more of our imported oil elsewhere.

The sad part that is so predictable is that wars usually start through misjudgments fed by egos. Assuming war is an extension of politics by other means, then the Iranian leadership, mostly the mullahs, have been getting away with murder for decades, are full of themselves and self confident they can do it again. All this presupposes their “other” side will continue to act as they always have. This other side includes the US and the many regional enemies, mostly Arab, and mostly Sunni. They have every reason to believe we will continue, as is. We always have, in their political experience. Now there are open source reports that the Iranians plan a military campaign to influence the US Congress this summer. So as always, sometimes the ego driven misjudgments end up in a real shooting war. Sometimes the “other” side says enough is enough.

What is particularly frightening is if the US does abandon Iraq, especially as a response to the coming Iranian military campaign. In American talk, Congress caves, the President goes along, and some of the citizens are relieved for the moment. This template will be followed for years by our enemies with big egos and less political savvy. The future is bleak in this case.

More importantly are the enemies of Iran in the region, mainly the Arabs and the Sunnis. If America caves, they have to live with it. But they don’t have to live with Persian hegemony in the region. They are players, too. The resulting war will be terrible in the humanitarian impacts, and vast migrations of refugees. It is all so predictable when egos and misjudgments meet people who are defending their way of life, in their judgments. That’s the root cause of the coming Iranian War in the Persian Gulf. It’s misjudgments based on past behavior.

Thank goodness, the US is doing its best to win on the battlefield today to deter the egomaniacs tomorrow. Right now it is a close call. That we are still doing it Vietnam style with one arm tied behind us is amazing. We are still allowing strategic sanctuaries in Syria and Iran for reasons most cannot fathom. Most also hope our leaders know more than we do, and have good reason to do so. Again, that is hope, and really it is all we have.

Last one wonders just how the Iranian mullahs, and the other egomaniacs in pursuit of their regional hegemony, think. One hopes it is just regional, which is bad enough in itself. If any American, especially a politician, has entered the fray in pursuit of policies that “play with fire”, they had better be very secretive, because the political dam is about to burst if a shooting war does erupt. Many still wonder about what the number two House Democrat was doing in Egypt meeting with the Muslim Brotherhood while Speaker Pelosi was in Damascus. While the answer is not known, the opportunity for egos and misjudgments that can lead to shooting wars is real. This is scary stuff. This is not 60’s idealism or playing anti-war. People’s lives are at stake.