Time marches on

How many think all the friction over Iraq today will be more than a squib in the history books in 50 years? How many think the world will be vastly different in 50 years? How many think the US will be here in 50 years?

On the first question, the answer is that Iraq will be an historical squib in 50 years.

On the second question, soothsaying is much more difficult as to details, but the principles are a little easier. The President’s strategy of “democracy” in the middle east, middle east style of course, is changing the whole balance of powers in much of the third world, not just the middle east. That he has unleashed the battle in the west and the east is good enough. Even the slightest shift in many peoples opinion about loyalty to something other than tribes is profound. In turn if nation-states in the third world even provide the most basic of human services like family security and the most minimal health care, that too is a profound change. If they don’t, then little will change. The normal wars and diplomacy over the status quo may look much the same as today.

On the third question, the US and New World is different from the Old World. While travel means and communication means have shrunk the world, the ideas are still profoundly different. When the baby boom generation effects die off over time, the American personality of hard work, entrepreneurship, the golden rule, don’t tread on me, and respect for ideas will trump all that has gone in the last 50 years. It won’t be nirvana … it will be just as ugly as today. And along the way the voters will decide how it all goes.