Iran, Iranians, and the threats to us

First of all give them credits. They love their country, their society, their families, and their way of life. It is all they have. They even have a long Persian history that would make all proud. And even the Persian prehistory, and for that matter the whole transcaucus prehistory, is a whole rich history of tribes migrating into this area from and to Europe. Yes it is tribal dependent, and yes, there are many blonde blue eyed tribes in remote valleys in Afghanistan. We are all relatives, somehow.

More credits, first. Go to school with Iranians (not the politicians) and they are the same as us; many are good academics, as in hard working. This is normal. Go relatives, albeit, very distant.

And Iran is a country about twice the size of Idaho, with a population of about 70 million. Again, on the credit side, we are talking about relatives, albeit distant.

In the end, if attacked, the Iranians will defend themselves as a civilization, a nation, and as relatives of ours. We have much in common since we will do the same.

On the bad credit downside is the present political leadership that does, in fact, run the country. Their running the country includes killing and oppressing their opposition. They are imbued with enough Eastern thought processes to denigrate the value of human life, and women. Most of the leadership is the theocratic and unelected ruling class. They do have a present puppet acting as the technically and legally (rigged election) President. He’s the one we read about in the press. He was one of student leaders during the U.S. Embassy takeover in 1979 (according to many reputable sources).

He, and they, the theocratic dictators, have many political and financial problems that will bring them down (most predict). It is a matter of when, not if. The when is very frustrating to the impatient, myself included. They have had to create their own extra military loyal to them and not the nation, and then finance it. Their Army of God (with its naval element) competes with the normal Iranian military for funds, etc. It is a repeat of Hitler and the Nazi Party having its SS, which was a competitor of their military. And Hitler and the Germans lost the war…bad plan for a war.

And then they have their other problems. Their version of Islam is a minority in the regional world where they live. How their future leaders sort out all the frictions between their religious and family values, regional religious competitors, and outsider western type values, is their problem. Does one wish these egomaniacs luck? I don’t. Neither do their regional enemies, and opponents, especially given the Iranian nuclear pursuits.

With the recent Brit problem, one might use the military approach of focusing on capabilities vice intents. Judging intents is always difficult and usually a waste of time. In the capabilities area, the Iranians have recently lost (to defections or kidnapping) more than a few senior military leaders (Army of God and regular military). They have promised to kidnap others in retaliation. Now they have. Their President has just canceled his visit to the U.N. and U.S. soil. We still can take more Iranians into “custody”, as well as continue whatever we are doing covertly. We are a bigger dog than they are. Their leadership (religious, political, and military) knows this, and we know this. We have been war gaming Iran for decades. They know that. Some Iranians used to participate in these war games since sometimes it was to defend Iran from the Russians during the Cold War (as well as other scenarios). The Russians are pulling out of Busheur, much like the French did at Osirak before the Israeli attack in 1981. The new CENTCOM is a Navy fellow with proconsul-like experience with China and other regional powers, and users of Persian Gulf oil energy and their economics for doing so. A second carrier battle group is forming up in the regional area. The President is changing other people in his team affecting the area, and is reported to be changing his strategy, and maybe even his tactics.

Diplomacy is most effective in the Eastern world with a big stick included in the process.