Things in historical perspective

The dynamics of human action are “all over the map”. Understanding them contributes to formulating practical policies of the present. Understanding them helps individuals make a path through the forest.

The lessons of history must be relearned by every generation.

The subset of the previous is that the lessons of Pearl Harbor must be relearned by our enemies every generation ( from tereista at the Belmont Club blog).

The present world war started by Iran and extreme Islam is necessary to bring debate, confusion, obfuscation, evasion, and hope for talk-to-work to a conclusion. All attacked countries will unite to fight back. The attacked countries that don’t fight back militarily will have the government removed by the people.

The western predilection towards isolationism, pacificism, self-indulgence, welfare, and tolerance will become stronger.

The western concept of nation state will be ameliorated by the human preference for tribes first. Earlier boundary commission borders will change. Horrible small wars will happen as a result. The example of the breakup of British India and today’s continued fighting on the sub-continent are the obvious example, today.

The western concepts of nationalism , universal suffrage, and women’s emancipation will continue to spread to future nations and tribes.

The establishment of the state of Israel is permanent in our lifetimes. For a thousand years, I don’t know. This includes the USA and the rest of the world.

The expansion of the human population will exacerbate political, religious, and resource friction.

Numbers count. If a tribe has 1 billion members, then 00.01% of that tribe is 100,000. That’s a lot of people.

Breeding rates of tribes do affect history.

Wars are started by people who suffer from overconfidence and misinformation. Megalomania is almost always a factor, also.

Wars are both large and small.

For war, think of Russians and Germans at Stalingrad, as in millions of people in a battle. If you want to think of a downsized war, as Sergey Gorshkov discussed in his book “Red Star Rising at Sea” , then think of the USMC and Navy, and Japan’s Army and Navy, at Guadalcanal. In his book, he put wars in his perspective based on the numbers of fighting men.

Wars have to be paid for. Savvy to understand how wars are fought at all elements and levels will be expanded (compared to the past), to include finance when this element can be exploited in large wars. In the east, local loyalties (albeit temporary) can also often be bought in small wars.

The present vast oil income by middle eastern countries and tribes has a finite end. This end will cease the financing of the extreme minority of Islam trying to dominate the world today.

Multi-culturalism is a failed concept for nations and tribes. Melting pots are back in.

Globalization is a mostly failed academic theory (now often still applied as policy) to homogenize the world. Nations and tribes are in it for the foreseeable future, though. Then it will ebb. Much friction will come.

The nuclear genie is out of the bottle. God help us all.

School education of humans (males and females) will increase in numbers. This expansion will take generations (on average about 30 years per generation) and what to teach young people will always be a debate within nations and tribes as to knowledge vs. propaganda vs. customs vs. religion.

Media reporting will change. Western media will evolve towards subject matter standards based reporting ( “just the news” will be predominant), and eastern government reporting will evolve towards western standards. Western media as a big business will also evolve towards the standard of review to ensure the “news only” is reported. The era of the media as the fourth estate and a war fighting influence will winnow down.

Hollywood’s heyday is on the ebb. The Hollywood culture as advanced by the people who make the movies is being rejected in the USA and the rest of the world.

Astute reading of media reports will help put things in perspective. For example, if reports of attacks in Afghanistan mention a 20% increase in violence, and we only had 10 attacks, then a 20% increase is statistically not very significant. For another example, if there are 90,000 (+) commercial aviation flights daily in the world, then a theoretical 1% increase in incidents is a different matter.

The western world’s consumption of drugs will end many western cultures as they are today.

The western consumption of drugs pays the incomes of those drug producing humans who are tribal at best, and defeats efforts to establish nation states in the third world where these people live.

There is a fair amount of corruption in the world, and the rule of law is often lacking in a nation state or parts of the nation state. And there is also a significant amount of criminality in many countries, which can also be violent places at times. Always consider the criminal element in their simple role in the social fabric of many countries. (Our USA’s banana wars in the 20s and 30s understood this, exploited this, and prosecuted this though the Marines, Navy, and State Department.)

History is change. Change can be exploited. And change is undeniable.

Change is usually gradual, and periodically cataclysmic. Change can be from an act of God, or humans.

The movement of humans (often called immigration) is part of human history. The main reason is family. Fathers and mothers will do what needs to be done to promote their progeny. The primary reason is work and peace (quality of life in modern western talk). Knowing an Afgani friend quite well, giving his daughter a western opportunity is also a factor for her and his tribe. That the trend is from the third world to the western countries says much for: the golden rule, the western standards, opportunity, and being tolerant.

The immigrants’ fear or avoidance of returning home is also a factor. This has been taught to me by Somali and Vietnamese friends working hard in the USA.

The path to the human future is through western ideology. This ideology provides a good chance for we humans to continue to exist. Elements of this ideology include social, economic, political, cultural, technological, and war fighting practices.

The best of eastern ideologies, of which there are many, are constantly being meshed with western practices in all nations and tribes.

The path of ideologies is a two way path. The paths are not the same size.

All people, tribes, and nations are not created equal. Promoters of moral equivalency are morally ignorant, educated fools, or both.

The chasm in thought, how and what to think, between western and eastern peoples, is wide, and bridgeable.

The concept, practice, and respect for deceit is a major cultural chasm between the eastern and the western peoples.

People of all nations and tribes will always unite to fight to protect their families.

Suppression of one group by another within a nation state or tribe is untenable in the long run. Unchecked power of one group within a nation state or tribe is also untenable in the long run. Eventually a rebellion, civil war, or breakup will occur. The creation of Bangladesh is a recent example of this perspective. Cuba may be next based on Castro’s death.

The concept of a United Nations or League of Nations to replace wars, rebellions, or civil wars as a means of diplomatic redress is another failed idea. The acceptance of world government is not even close to political reality.

Leaders, both individual and party, of nation states and tribes, always seek the positions of power; and then usually formulate actions and policies to perpetuate the status quo. Those that think of documents such as constitutions or policies that promote the peoples’ futures are few and far between.

Honest people can disagree. Honesty never over comes ignorance, agendas, cultural chasms, and megalomania.

Don’t trust anyone under thirty.