Okinawa & Futenma: Deal Or No Deal?
Tokyo appears to be on the verge of finally
settling the controversial issue. Will it succeed?
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By
Okinawan standards, it may not have been the U-turn of the century: the island
is well accustomed to politicians saying one thing and then doing the exact
opposite. Rather, the decision of Governor Hirokazu Nakaima to approve the
relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma – after years of
consistently opposing such a move – is but the latest surprising, yet somehow
entirely predictable, development in Okinawa’s political history.
Nakaima
must have known that he would be branded a traitor for approving a
long-delayed U.S.-Japanese plan to move MCAS Futenma to a new site at Henoko
village, some 30 miles to the northeast. For a long time, opinion polls have
tracked opposition to Futenma’s relocation within Okinawa prefecture at 60-70
percent. In Nago City, of which Henoko is a part, opposition is probably even
higher. And Nakaima won re-election as governor in 2010 partly due to his
stance that Futenma should not be relocated within Okinawa. The relocation deal
is the leading issue in the current Nago mayoral
election campaign, with a pro-relocation candidate supported by Tokyo pitted
against an opponent who, if he wins, could frustrate the relocation process.
Futenma
itself, situated right in the middle of Ginowan City, is unloved: the 50 or so
Marine Corps aircraft based there, which include the controversial MV-22
Osprey, are noisy, and the possibility that one might crash makes local
residents nervous. So it is Futenma’s relocation, not its closure, which people
oppose.
In the
Governor’s Defence
Many
Okinawans oppose the new base on principle, and that’s entirely understandable.
There has been a large, and at times oppressive, U.S. military presence there
since 1945; the island still hosts three quarters of all the U.S. installations
in Japan; and if the Marines really need a new airbase, it seems reasonable to
argue that Okinawa has already done its part and that some other place in Japan
should now do the hosting.
However,
if they are able to look unemotionally at Nakaima’s decision, some Okinawans
may feel that he has negotiated a pretty good deal for the island. At a meeting
with Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in late December, Nakaima handed Abe a list of
demands. These included: the accelerated closure of Futenma within five years;
the return of Camp Kinser, another U.S. Marine facility, within seven years;
the long-overdue revision of the Status of Forces Agreement governing U.S.
forces in Japan; and the redeployment of 12 of the Marines’ 24 Ospreys outside
Okinawa.
Nakaima
also secured a significant budget boost for
Okinawa, which has now been allocated 340 billion yen ($3.2 billion), up from
300 billion yen, for 2014. Additionally, he asked Abe for 300 billion yen for a
second runway at Naha airport, various tax breaks to help boost the local
economy, and funds for a railway system, something the island currently lacks.
Though
he opposes relocation within Okinawa, Nakaima’s top priority has always been
the closure of Futenma. In truth, that may also be the top priority of many
Okinawans as well. Nakaima may now have achieved that on a much-improved
timetable than the airy pledge of closure “by 2022 or later” which Tokyo and
Washington had made previously.
The
economic stimulus measures are also important. Some Okinawans blame Tokyo – not
unfairly – for the island’s economic malaise, but the fact is that investment
from Tokyo remains the only realistic ticket out of that predicament. If the
development funds Okinawa needs are dependent on Futenma’s relocation, then
Futenma’s relocation may be a price worth paying.
There
are also strong environmental arguments against building the new base, which
will jut out into the sea off Henoko and potentially upset the local marine
ecosystem. However, land reclamation projects are underway all over Okinawa. If
the Henoko base were the prime threat to an otherwise pristine marine
environment, then the environmental case against Futenma’s relocation would be
extremely strong. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case. The Henoko base may
indeed be bad for the local environment, but it seems unfair to single out that
one project when ugly, ill-conceived development programs are underway right
across the island.
The
Prime Minister and the Protesters
Nakaima’s
part in this saga is now more or less over. He soon turns 75, and it is highly
unlikely that he will seek re-election when his term ends later this year. The
fate of the Futenma relocation plan – and the island’s stability – now rests
with Abe, and with the Okinawans themselves.
In
receiving Nakaima’s list of demands, Abe promised to make the “maximum effort”
to reduce Okinawa’s burden; however, he did not specifically agree to the
deliver the items on the governor’s list. It is imperative that he now does so
– and not only to salvage the reputation of his colleague Nakaima, who more
than met him halfway by green-lighting the Futenma relocation plan. Abe needs
to demonstrate to Okinawa that there are benefits, as well as costs, to life
within the Japanese state and as a host of the U.S. military.
The
reaction of the Okinawan people is therefore key to whether Futenma finally
closes, and whether the new base at Henoko is actually built. Some 2,000 people
descended on the Okinawa Prefectural Government offices to denounce Nakaima
after he announced his decision, but it will take many more than that to halt
the relocation plan.
From
afar, Okinawa may appear a hotbed of opposition and resentment, but up close it
looks very different. While a number of protest groups constantly maintain the
anti-U.S. drumbeat, mainstream society co-exists happily enough with the
American presence – most of the time. So if they are to have any chance of
nixing the relocation plan, the protesters will need to get Middle Okinawa out
onto the streets.
When
this has happened in the past, the trigger has been some particularly
outrageous event, such as a sexual assault perpetrated by U.S. servicemen.
Nakaima’s decision alone may not be enough to motivate mass protest, unless
there is a second trigger. An Osprey crash would probably do it; another rape
by American servicemen almost certainly would.
Barring
such an incident, Abe has it within his gift to keep the peace. Nakaima has
presented him with a blueprint for making Futenma’s relocation just about
palatable to an island that does not like the idea. If he really wants to
relocate Futenma without Okinawa descending into chaos, he should rapidly
implement that blueprint, in every detail.
The original post can be
found at:
http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/okinawa-futenma-deal-or-no-deal/
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