Numbers count, too

A good strategy followed through, and time, count too.

And to this armchair general , some of the basics in this Iraqi small war where west meets east are still being ignored in America. Our senior military and diplomatic leaders in the region probably recognize this, and we will hear more on the subject from them in September. And for this poster’s political beliefs, America most win in Iraq for our National Interests, so constructive criticism is difficult to bring up as it might be used by the wrong people for their own purposes. In turn, it’s difficult throwing a wet blanket on all the reported success of the surge to date.

The concerns are three: safe havens, time, and the difficulty of west meets east.

American government has put off-limits to attack safe havens that keep feeding the people and money that we keep killing or setting back in Iraq. That we Americans are doing a great job in having a new surge strategy and rules of engagement and new leaders in Iraq is to the commended and long overdue. But it seems like we westerners are shooting ducks in the barrels, and some easterners keep refilling the barrels, and we Americans want to stick with shooting ducks in the barrels. Hopefully, those easterners that refill the barrels will grow tired or poorer, and quit. But hope is not a strategy. And the ducks do shoot back, and kill and maim Americans.

We have been in Iraq way too long, from a western American point of view. One early strategy had us out within six months of winning the war. It didn’t take in D.C. Now time has marched on, and we are hearing hints in the media that while the surge is working, it will take time to succeed. Time in Iraq is something Americans do not have much more patience for, given the track record of the last five years. And as long as we allow safe havens, we are not in the drivers seat, and still on a road with no end in sight, with our wonderful American military still there and still professional and still being killed or maimed. American impatience with war fighting in all its aspects is an Achilles heel that our enemies recognize and use. I just wish our political leaders were as astute.

I was extremely proud to read about a Marine lieutenant making a mafia like payment (almost $100K) to a sunni sheik in Anbar province. That’s how it works when west meets east. The world’s longest lasting empire was not Rome (600 years) but Byzantium (1,000 years). Byzantium was a better blend of west and east, where bribes often achieved political victories compared to the military alternative. In this arena of cultural conflict, most westerners are out of their experience level; education counts for little. As Rudyard Kipling said in a poem: “It is not good for Christian health to weareth the Aryan* brown, for the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles, and he weareth the Christian down”. Being said another way, being disingenuous is a character trait admired in many eastern cultures. Said a third and probably best way, many of the eastern culture young people are western educated and exposed, and take advantage. Most small wars such as in Iraq and the region usually involve thugs and criminals and now fascists who cloak themselves in revolutionary garb and now religious garb and phrases, yet their goal is always selfish and primeval.

If one follows this train of logic, and agrees, then the future is going to be difficult, as in some sacrifice and much difficulty to protect our National Future and Interest is coming in all cases. The least damaging is to expand this to a regional war, financial and military. Killing a Saudi financier, and bombing as best we can the Iranian nuclear infrastructure and Syrian training camps in the Beqaa Valley, will provoke terrible financial repercussions from Saudi Arabians as well as the Chinese. They will suffer worse, but it will be a war. The worse option is to kick the ball down to our future leaders. If they are presented with options about National Survival because we did not act earlier, what they may do is even more ugly. In either case, it is out of our control because our enemies are determined and relentless and on the doorstep. Americans thought they could dictate everything in the world early in the 21st century. Sounds a little like the earlier Romans.

* The term Aryan is as old as the Swastika symbol in human religions. H.G. Wells’ book “ An Outline of History” published in the late 1920’s is a good primer on both subjects. One need only read the first third of the book for the primer homework. Subsequent versions (by other authors) update to WWII and later, but the original will do just fine.