Analyze this

Much has been said about politics in USA America today. I myself have both the time and inclination to read much of it. Well, we all do have our own hobbies.

What still astounds me, as in disappointing me, is the amount of time pundits spend analyzing, which usually amounts to doing amateur psychobabble type stuff. And it seems to pay well these days as far as I can see, and read.

What I would like to point out is the alternative. Rather than try put oneself in some other’s shoes and analyze their way of thinking and their intents, try soothsaying their capabilities. In my mind, the latter option is both more reliable, and a better and easier way to predict the future.

Four examples come to mind.

1) Are the Democrats in the USA simply executing some party conspiracy, or simply incompetent, or is it something simpler? For my mind, I think they (the Congress and the Executive) are running our economy into the ground, and hopefully we can recover in some other new human world less likeable to we USA citizens than before. In this example, it is the capability I can act and vote on. I won’t waste my time trying to analyze this group’s intent.

2) In Zimbabwe, is it simple human greed and ego or something else that is forcing so many to starve, or emigrate away. Again, the idea of capabilities vice intents is an idea one can vote on. Either way, a big piece of land is being run into the ground, and it appears to be human caused.

3) In Moro land, aka the Southern Philippines, is the now century old Islamic insurrection still locally based, or now exploited by outsiders? Just how to deal with this brings me back to intents vice capabilities. I myself think of the Philippines as the 51st state, but would never venture into Moro land.

4) Is the present Islamic terrorist threat to so many (who want to live without such a threat) based on some Arab Wahhabi sect or some other Islamic idea that others like in Indonesia accept? Again the example is what is the intent? And again, what is the capability of those intending to kill some of us. I myself have done my math, lived in these areas, and even worked with these others in the USA. In my math, 99.99% of Muslims are good people, but with a world population of 1.6 billion Muslims, the remaining 0.01% still amounts to about 160,000 people. Now eliminate most non Arab Muslims, and I am still left with a big number of potential people who want to kill me. Now that is an example of capability. And where does their money come from?

Intents are one thing. Capability is another.