Sorting out Iraq, and what to do today.

The Iraq war has gone on long enough to now be discussed by the Washington level think tanks and symposiums. A lot of smart western people are working on the Iraq war, and the world war with Islam’s fanatics.

There are even D.C. proposals for enhanced strategic communications which I interpret as top down from D.C, and maybe even surrendering to the western media influence. These proposals may have merit.

And then there is the real world.

I assume as an American that we want to preserve our way of life, mostly for our kids. If this assumption is incorrect, then do not read further.

The media does not win wars. Some quasi version of war and peace may be written as a report or even be an instrument of war, but it is words only. Devastation on the ground, death of civilian relatives, and loss of military comrades is war. Media decided wars are a western invention.

That war is the extension of politics by other means still applies. The savvy operator knows this as he applies all means of winning in any third world tribal area…family preservation, income and health and upward mobility, law and order, and an expectation of a future. This is translated to most of us USA types as nation building, to include: healthy water supply, health clinics, schools, jobs, trained and reliable constabularies, food relief when appropriate, tax collection, and NGO support. Most importantly, authority to spend money in a timely manner to do all this must be at the lowest level. All the IG stuff about D.C. contracts and corruption in the local area can come later in what will be an ugly picture, I expect.

I am impressed with our American resilience in responding to change and mistakes in the Iraq war. That we won the Iraq war is obvious; that we are winning the peace is up for grabs. While there are many D.C. based buzz words to act like the reporter is “in the know”, constabulary type conflict and “three block war” principles apply, and also be the fad words today.

Some of our institutions are light years ahead of others in this small war in Iraq, and the larger war with Islam’s small fringe of radicals. The institutions that seem to best suit us today are the Naval Service, special forces, and selected NGOs based on their experience, professional educations down to the lowest levels, and histories. I say the preceding based on the idea that “you dance with who you brought”.

I am especially disappointed in how the State Department’s performance has gone in Iraq. Perhaps the comments that they are presently institutionally only able to deal with other governments are on the mark? I have zero intel on how the present USA to Iraq Ambassador is doing. My sense is that if he can keep under the media radar as he has , he is being effective.

I would resist all efforts to eliminate the State Department as part of the solution in order to let the Defense Department do it all. Plan B is to change the State Department to do what I think is its part of the job in the future third world tribal areas. Until then, get out of the way and let the Naval Service and NGOs have a go as to leadership, along with all the great engineers the military can muster. These great people are Seabees, Army Corps of Engineers, NATO Engineers, NGO contractors, and even the Coast Guard in littoral areas. And relieve the leaders if they fail to get the mission done in a timely manner.

I would also resist all efforts to create some kind of colonial corps to address today’s problems. The alternative is to do what we have always done and are doing today: task organize using doctrine, professional education, lessons learned, and history in deciding “who we bring to the dance”. Fifty to one hundred years in the future the “dance” will probably be different, and we don’t need another bureaucratic dinosaur from 2006 in the way. Institutions that are failing must be reformed, not superseded.

I am also impressed with the CIA’s way of operating in these third world tribal areas. Lots of money goes a long way in the middle east and transcaucasia, and that is good as they have used it. What may seem as immoral use of money to westerners is just normal deceit and bribes to many easterners.

The D.C. political battle in 2003 between Gen. Garner (DOD) and Ambassador Bremmer (SD) was our, and more importantly, the Iraqi’s loss. All the reports of the window of opportunity having months left as whole local groups went without income for their families came to pass. I fault the CPA and State Department D.C. bureaucratic legacy and strategy in the face of obvious local infrastructure and financial needs; hence the need for change in the future.

The local third world people we are trying to recruit to resist our enemies don’t care about our problems all that much. And mostly we think they will give up the bad guys if they have a better deal with us. But do we care, or is our time and effort just a temporary way to advance our objective, is an oft asked local question? And in the middle east, the use of local deceit usually places us USA types out of our league. In USA terms, it is kind of a blue collar vs. white collar friction. All the best laid plans in D.C. and CentCom headquarters are interesting, but what is in it for me locally? How does it affect me locally??

Those now in a hurry or under pressure to increase nation building in Iraq will be frustrated with many of the military institutions there. So what to do when the latest “light bulb has gone on” with a military commander?

In Georgia Tech football terms, I would usually punt when it is fourth down and 10 yards to go. Good initiative cannot replace decades of lack of professional education and preparation by some USA institutions in Iraq. But Iraq is much more important than Georgia Tech football, and running that fourth down is probably a good idea.

Now that the Horn of Africa successful work since 2002 has gained recent media attention, I fear for the future of our successful western efforts there. The simple third world campaign plan in effect since 2002 is on the mark, but who knows what USA educated people who take over will do in the future? (Simple means simple in concept, but detailed in execution at all levels simultaneously.)

My vote. Let it ride in CentCom. Let’s see what D.C. and CentCom try to do now and can do in the near future. The problems just after the attack and occupation in Iraq are not the problems faced today.