By Richard Fernandez in PJ Media and
the Belmont Club Blog
Negotiations between Iran and the
Obama administration have reached a fever pitch, with sources suggesting the two sides were only days away
from an agreement. Although the exact character of the deal is still
unknown, enough has been guessed to allow some people to make up their minds
about it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned a few hours ago that:
“This deal, as it appears to be
emerging, bears out all of our fears, and even more than that,” Netanyahu told
his cabinet in Jerusalem as the United States, five other world powers and Iran
worked toward a March 31 deadline in Lausanne, Switzerland.
Noting advances made by
Iranian-allied forces in Yemen and other Arab countries, Netanyahu accused the
Islamic republic of trying to “conquer the entire Middle East” while moving
toward nuclearisation.
A message in the same vein was
carried by an Iranian defector. “A media aide to Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani covering the P5+1 nuclear talks in Lausanne, Switzerland, is seeking
asylum in the West and has blasted the U.S. negotiating team as apologists for
Iran,” writes the American Interest, quoting the Telegraph.
Mr Mottaghi also gave succour to
western critics of the proposed nuclear deal, which has seen the White House
pursue a more conciliatory line with Tehran than some of America’s European
allies in the negotiating team, comprising the five permanent members of the UN
security council and Germany.
“The US negotiating team are mainly
there to speak on Iran’s behalf with other members of the 5+1 countries and
convince them of a deal,” he said.
These remarks may be dismissed as
disinformation by advocates of the deal, who see an agreement as the narrow
path to peace, the last hope to settle a conflict without resort to war. The
metaphor is John Kerry’s who described his efforts to block Iran off from the four
pathways to a nuclear bomb. Three roads he knows about. It is the fourth way —
the one whose meanderings are secret — that Kerry is most concerned about.
On Wednesday in Washington, US
Secretary of State John Kerry told the Global Chiefs of Mission Conference that
the priority of the Obama administration is to reach a comprehensive nuclear
deal with Iran that “shuts off the four pathways to a nuclear weapon: the
pathway at Fordow, the pathway at Natanz, the pathway at Arak.”
“And finally,” he continued, “the
covert pathway, which is the hardest of all but which I can assure you we are
deeply focused on.”
That fourth pathway is perhaps the
most important— and the least reported— aspect of talks with Iran currently
under way here in Switzerland.
Journalists often cite the number of
centrifuges Iran will be allowed to retain, the frequency with which they will
be inspected by international monitors, the grade to which they will be able to
enrich uranium and the technological sophistication, or efficiency, of the
machines.
But that public debate is moot
should Iran retain the ability to develop nuclear weapons secretly. Of far
greater concern to US President Barack Obama is what he does not know— and what
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not know, either.
It’s a striking image: John Kerry
standing sentry over a phantom highway, the lanky, doleful Secretary of State
as guardian of the secret path, whose location neither he nor anyone else is
certain of. But there is also something absurd about it. The only man in
Washington in a position fit to commiserate with Kerry is probably Trey Gowdy,
who is likewise battling with the unseen. Gowdy says that Hillary Clinton has
wiped clean the email server whose contents he subpoenaed. Like Kerry he is grappling
with the unknown. Politico reports:
Hillary Clinton wiped “clean” the
private server housing emails from her tenure as secretary of state, the
chairman of the House committee investigating the 2012 terrorist attacks in
Benghazi said Friday.
“While it is not clear precisely
when Secretary Clinton decided to permanently delete all emails from her
server, it appears she made the decision after October 28, 2014, when the
Department of State for the first time asked the Secretary to return her public
record to the Department,” Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), chairman of the Select
Committee on Benghazi, said in a statement.
The point of the comparison is that
in both cases one is dealing with parties possessed of a considerable, but
unmeasured capability for mischief with a proven determination to avoid coming
clean. This doesn’t mean it is impossible to reach a deal with them. But it
does mean is that any agreement with such parties contains a large element of
risk.
The incentive to cheat is high.
The number of trap doors and secret panels in their mansion of mysteries
is high. You can think of it intuitively as lending money or granting bail to a
high risk individual. Bail bondsmen know can be done, but only if the
sureties are sufficient and the risk premium is adequate. And even then
you will need a bounty hunter on your speed-dial list.
If you worked for a credit card
company, how much would you lend Iran? How much Hillary? This is a
nuclear deal in Iran’s case, and the world is lending them a lot.
In a relatively short period,
president Obama will place a very large bet. When he makes the deal a
coin will be tossed. On the one hand he may have saved the world from a major
war. On the other hand, he may have guaranteed it. No can know for sure while
the coin is spinning in the air. We will only know when it lands. Such is
the nature of risk in this world.
But surely everyone will agree that
it is only prudent to examine the coin before it is tossed or to inspect the
dice for loading. At the very least Congress and the Senate must look it
over and kick the tires. There should be none of this nonsense about
“trust me”. The more serious the outcome, the more finely you must weigh the
odds. President Obama is hungry for a legacy. Let’s hope he remembers that an
administration legacy is not the same as an epitaph.
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شركة زهرة الخليج
مبيدات حشرية بالاحساء
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