This is one way a war starts

This is one way a war starts

      China: On 29 November, the fifth meeting of the Standing Committee of the Fifth Hainan People's Congress passed an amended version of the regulations governing Hainan province, according to Chinese press.

This year's amendments include the declaration of a new maritime identification zone for regulating all fishing in the area bounded in red -- from the coast of Hainan southwards along the Philippine Islands down to the coast of Borneo and northwards skirting Vietnam. The boundaries encompass 772,204 square miles (2 million square kilometers) of sea.

 

According to the regulation, "All foreign persons and foreign fishing boats that enter waters administered by Hainan Province to conduct fishing or fisheries surveys must have pre-approval from the appropriate PRC (People's Republic of China) State Council office." The new regulation is effective 1 January 2014.

Comment: The new maritime zone was declared six days after China announced the new air defense identification zone that covers the Senkakus. The fishing industry has not protested the new regulation, probably because it is not yet in effect and, thus, has not been tested. The effect of the regulation is to treat the sea and island areas as China's territorial waters, rather than international waters.

Last year on the same date, Hainan announced more sweeping regulations for effectively administering the sea areas under its jurisdiction. Those regulations empowered Hainan's public security border defense units to board or interfere with all foreign ships - not just fishing ships -- under six conditions that range from "trying to pick a quarrel" in the 12 nautical mile territorial sea; to illegal landing on islands; violations of national sovereignty or propaganda activities that threaten national security; to other actions that threaten the management of public order in coast and border areas. These are models of subjectivity.

Authorities on Hainan clarified last year that they would only enforce the regulations within the 12 nautical mile zone, including the 12 nautical mile zone around all the islands that China claims. That led to the standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal.

The new developments this year - the zone declaration and the targeting of foreign fishing ships - suggest an incremental expansion of enforcement should be expected in 2014. One expert concluded last year that, on balance, the new regulations asserted a legal basis for boarding or seizing foreign ships, but did not portend a major change in Chinese law enforcement practices. That was last year.

One can judge that this year the treatment of fishing boats will be more aggressive. If so, it will change the fundamental economics of fishing and mineral exploration in the South China Sea. In addition, it will increase the inevitability of confrontations over sovereignty with Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Inasmuch as this declaration supports long term Chinese development plans, another expansion of jurisdictional claims may be expected in 2015 and every year thereafter until all foreign ships should expect to be monitored and China's neighbors get used to it.