This is one way a war starts
China: On 29 November, the fifth meeting of
the Standing Committee of the Fifth Hainan People's Congress passed an amended
version of the regulations governing Hainan province, according to Chinese
press.
This year's amendments include the declaration of a new
maritime identification zone for regulating all fishing in the area bounded in
red -- from the coast of Hainan southwards along the Philippine Islands down to
the coast of Borneo and northwards skirting Vietnam. The boundaries encompass
772,204 square miles (2 million square kilometers) of sea.
According to the regulation, "All foreign persons and
foreign fishing boats that enter waters administered by Hainan Province to
conduct fishing or fisheries surveys must have pre-approval from the
appropriate PRC (People's Republic of China) State Council office." The
new regulation is effective 1 January 2014.
Comment: The new
maritime zone was declared six days after China announced the new air defense
identification zone that covers the Senkakus. The fishing industry has not
protested the new regulation, probably because it is not yet in effect and,
thus, has not been tested. The effect of the regulation is to treat the sea and
island areas as China's territorial waters, rather than international waters.
Last year on the same date, Hainan announced more sweeping
regulations for effectively administering the sea areas under its jurisdiction.
Those regulations empowered Hainan's public security border defense units to
board or interfere with all foreign ships - not just fishing ships -- under six
conditions that range from "trying to pick a quarrel" in the 12 nautical
mile territorial sea; to illegal landing on islands; violations of national
sovereignty or propaganda activities that threaten national security; to other
actions that threaten the management of public order in coast and border areas.
These are models of subjectivity.
Authorities on Hainan clarified last year that they would
only enforce the regulations within the 12 nautical mile zone, including the 12
nautical mile zone around all the islands that China claims. That led to the
standoff with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal.
The new developments this year - the zone declaration and
the targeting of foreign fishing ships - suggest an incremental expansion of
enforcement should be expected in 2014. One expert concluded last year that, on
balance, the new regulations asserted a legal basis for boarding or seizing
foreign ships, but did not portend a major change in Chinese law enforcement
practices. That was last year.
One
can judge that this year the treatment of
fishing boats will be more aggressive. If so, it will change the fundamental
economics of fishing and mineral exploration in the South China Sea. In
addition, it will increase the inevitability of confrontations over sovereignty
with Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Inasmuch as this declaration supports long term Chinese
development plans, another expansion of jurisdictional claims may be expected
in 2015 and every year thereafter until all foreign ships should expect to be
monitored and China's neighbors get used to it.
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