That is the simple and powerful
declaration of a new study of China’s
military by the RAND Corp., done at
the behest of the congressionally-mandated U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
What are those Chinese weaknesses?
The report, again, is admirably clear.
“The first is institutional. The PLA
faces shortcomings stemming from outdated command structures, quality of
personnel, professionalism, and corruption. The second set of weaknesses
centers on combat capabilities. These shortcomings include logistical
weaknesses, insufficient strategic airlift capabilities, limited numbers of
special-mission aircraft, and deficiencies in fleet air defense and
antisubmarine warfare.”
Those weaknesses may mean that the
PLA wouldn’t be able to execute key missions the Chinese leadership has set for
it, such as “various Taiwan contingencies, maritime claim missions, sea line of
communication protection, and some military operations other than war
scenarios.” You can translate much of that into an inability of the PLA to lay claim to and
to patrol the Senkaku Islands, the Spratlys
and other contested lands and waters.
Among the Peoples Liberation Army’s
most prominent weaknesses are those that most analysts believe are America’s
greatest strengths: its command structure and the quality, education and
training of its people, the RAND report says. The Chinese continue to struggle
mightily, as did the United States, with its ability to wage joint warfare,
with a clear line of command and relatively effective integration of
weapons and troops.
The PLA, RAND assesses, “also faces
potential weaknesses in its ability to protect Chinese interests in space and the electromagnetic spectrum,” which is ironic given the enormous attention paid to the
Chinese anti-satellite test and its lasing of American spy satellites.
There’s more good news for those who
measure and counter China’s growing military and diplomatic heft. And it comes
in a key area: acquisition.
“The main problems the defense
industry faces include widespread corruption, lack of competition, entrenched
monopolies, delays and cost overruns, quality control problems, bureaucratic
fragmentation, an outdated acquisition system, and restricted access to
external sources of technology and expertise,” the report says.
Of course, the Chinese have, as the
report notes, made remarkable advances since the Gulf War, deploying “modern
multimission surface ships; advanced submarines; more-modern fighter aircraft;
and conventional cruise and ballistic missiles, including an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) designed to target U.S. aircraft carriers.”
Several things should be noted about
this report. First, it is not based on classified sources or information. But
the authors have swept through an enormous library of official Chinese
documents, as well as official US government documents.
You can be sure that the Chinese
will read this report and press as swiftly as a corrupt authoritarian
regime can to fix these weaknesses. Read the
entire report. It’s worth it.
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