The need for Allies is in America’s future

Since we have reduced our military and diplomatic power and economic power over the recent decades, the need for Allies is greater than ever. Now is a good time to think about this.

Start with an example. When the coming Persian Gulf War starts, many people think the Iranians will block the Strait of Hormuz, among their other actions. This action would seriously hurt the Japanese and Indian economies, and one of two things will happen. First, these two Countries will tell the Iranian leaders this is unacceptable, and this alone will stop this adverse action. Second is that both these Countries are allies of sorts, and we or they or both will use military action to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to keep the oil flow going, mostly from our Arab allies who pump the oil to Japan and India (many do call it the Arabian Gulf, by the way). This example points out how important our Allies are.

Protecting their National interests will be also in our National Interests, probably. Now is the time to think about this, while there is time to think rationally. And this example points out that others may start shooting first, and drag us into a greater war. This is not an implausible idea since the assassination of a family political figure in the Balkans ultimately dragged us into WWI. And the key point is now that we have reduced our military and diplomatic and economic power, how important are our allies to our National Interests is a valid question. When we were a super power, we had more flexibility to go our own way. And while we as a USA Nation are still the “big dog”, others just need to think we lack resolve, for example, for them to go in ways harmful to us. Some may even try to trick us. More commonly they will be local, and most Westerners don’t think local fights like engaged in by Iranian backed Hamas and Hezbollah, or Philippine Islamic insurrections, or Sri Lanka Tiger planting of sea mines, or FARC efforts in northern South America, are worth the effort. They are probably right if the Vital National Interest test is applied. Let these world areas remain lawless and terrible until the local people change things. But also if Israeli's think they will be eliminated, as promised by their so many enemies, is their existence in our National Interests.

The idea of a Middle East Regional War may be closer than most wish. The coming Israeli large National Defense drill beginning April 6th has the region abuzz. And they alone may go after the Iranian nuclear program, probably from German made submarines launching modified Harpoon missiles from the Indian Ocean. A key point is that our Allies will act in their own National interests, and we have to decide what we want to do in response. The very recent and large naval deployments from the USA and Europe into the Region also suggests some Americans and Allies are thinking ahead to perhaps shooting, extraction of Nationals, or humanitarian actions.

Isn’t it strange that many of those Americans so dedicated to peace in the world use methods that may generate military conflict and wars in the end. While counterintuitive, this often happens. The cross-cultural divide between East and West is a two way street, and the ignorance on the other Eastern side is so often appalling, petty, and regionally egotistical. Hence some of our Allies’ militaries and diplomats are more practical and realistic and even use benign neglect in dealing in these issues that represent our common interests. And talk has been cheap. Now we get to live with our decisions, to include others, mostly Allies, deciding our future, to include our kids and grandkids future.