Incoming CME, Storms Possible on Earth Day
On Saturday, April 18th, a magnetic filament attached to sunspot group AR2321 erupted, producing a C5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory watched the filament split the sun's atmosphere as it hurtled away from the blast site.
Part of the escaping filament formed the core of a faint CME, which is now heading almost directly for Earth. The cloud should reach our planet during the late hours of April 21st. In combination with a solar wind stream already en route, the impact could spark geomagnetic storms around the poles on April 22nd, Earth Day.
This is a minor CME launched by a minor C-class flare, so it is natural to expect only minor storms when the CME arrives. Indeed, that is probably what will happen. It is notable, however, that the intense geomagnetic storm of March 17, 2015, was triggered by a C-flare/CME combo only a little more intense than this one. The "St. Patrick's Day Storm" reminds us that any CME impact can produce a significant disturbance. Indeed, NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of polar magnetic storms when the CME arrives. Auroras for Earth Day, anyone? Stay tuned.
From SpaceWeather.com
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