Dusting off one old prediction

Dusting off one old prediction

To me I often get my predictions right, but my timing is usually off.

With the human element involved it is as much an art as a science, so even high tech algorithms and data mining ideas pale compared to human judgment and experience, at least to me. At best data mining is a tool to be used by a wise and savvy human.

Now some things are simple, like growing garden food, though even gardening does take time, is sometimes boring to me, is often hard work, but still is pretty predictable if I do the basics correctly and my weather timing is fortunate.

And then there is the more human caused type of events, like a regional war in the Middle East. Now while it may happen, just when it may happen is always up for grabs. One in finances always wants to buy low and sell high, but getting the timing right for that is about zero. So like the old saying, only two things in life are inevitable, death and taxes. Even when running a long marathon (around 26 miles or 42 kilometers) there are only three obvious results: 1) finish the run just as you run out of energy; 2) finish the run with something left over in terms of energy; or 3) run out of energy early and at best hobble over the finish line with leg cramps from dehydration (not a fun experience). So good luck predicting how you will do in any of these endeavors.

Even the sports “experts” are often wrong, too.

And then expect surprises once the “cat is out of the bag”. For example, most humans expect any Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities to be delivered by air, but don’t be surprised if it is by German-built submarines based in Mumbai and delivered with the Israelis using modified American Harpoon missiles that just seal off the entrances to the underground facilities.  Or the local Sunni Arabs may get involved and who knows what they might do (the Iranians are Shiites and are not Arabs). The mission is pretty simple, like deny this relatively small Shiite nation-state (Iran) the ability to make and deliver nuclear weapons. Just how that mission gets accomplished is always up for grabs.

So in my mind I have “dusted off an old prediction” about war in the Middle East.  Now how the present amateur political leaders in the USA react (vice act) is another wildcard to me these days. So it is time for me to “dust off” my gardening and farming  and hunting and bartering  skills if I should need them. After all, I have to eat, too. And this is the new world USA, like no “Hunger Games” can survive around here, though I suspect many may try.