An Asian convergence of events
The next few months should make us think ahead while we have the calm to do so. When the events converge, terrible things may happen all to quickly.
This winter’s bad weather in China, the Chinese lunar new year February 7th, the friction between the statist and entrepreneur economies, and a shortage of coal for heat and electricity (like 8 days left right now in one report) will brew up a possible revolt or civil war when people start freezing to death in the rural areas and people go without electricity in the metropolitan areas. All this is on top of their existing and severe environmental problems, to include birth defects.
Add in the anxieties of Japan’s government smudging their overseas support of the war in Mesopotamia with their constitution, and the nervousness of their neighbors with long memories going back to the 1930’s, comes up, again.
Add in the probable collapse of the North Korean government for economic reasons (even Korean people will only starve and freeze to death for so long), and the resulting migrations of Koreans into China, and the Chinese resistance for their own reasons, and another brew comes into play.
All this could be a witches brew in western talk. Said another way, change will be quick and on a national scale, and even an international scale, especially if WMD’s or severe economic impacts come into play.
Now is a good time to think about what the USA should do, if anything. Mostly we citizens should think about it, and if the worst case comes to pass, then get involved with our federal government, executive and congressional, and their hired staffs. During this period of relatively poor leaders in Washington, D.C., our American national interests should predominate, and we citizens need to tell these fellow Americans what to do. What we do is not up to them, it is up to us. Mostly we can tell them by our vote. In the next few months we may be stuck with those we elected earlier. But we are not stuck in the past, thank goodness.
2 comments:
Do you happen to have that report on China's coal situation on record? I would like to see it myself for citation purposes.
Here is the entire article.
NightWatch
For the Night of 24 January 2008
Japan: The Maritime Self Defense Force destroyer Murasame left today for the Indian Ocean to resume Japan’s role in the anti-terrorism patrols. It is to be joined by a tanker that will support the re-fueling mission.
"Japan will fulfill its global responsibilities," Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba said at a send-off ceremony attended by about 200 people. "This mission is highly appreciated abroad. It is a very important mission."
The long term consequences for the Japanese of restoring this symbolic mission might prove to be more than the Fukuda administration can bear. Using parliamentary procedure, Fukuda pushed the enabling legislation through the parliament. In doing so, he adopted the position of his predecessor that Japan’s role as a world economic power must be supported by greater assertiveness in using its military forces in allied causes, provided they do not engage in combat. This stretches the clear meaning of Self Defense Forces into the muddy waters of mixed metaphor. The Japanese probably ought to have a referendum on this. The government needs to watch the reaction of the neighbors, all of whom have long memories of Japanese conquest and watched this vote.
China: Reuters Alertnet ran an ominous story from China's weather forecasters. They issued a warning on 25 January that heavy snow, sleet and rain are threatening to sweep across the country from the coast to the western borders, adding strain to the national coal shortage crisis as millions of migrant workers from the coastal cities are preparing to return to their home villages in the countryside to celebrate the Lunar New Year on 7 February.
The BBC ran a companion piece on the power shortage this winter. The short version is a classic problem in statist economic management. State managers have imposed price controls on energy output to spur economic growth, but failed to control the price of coal supplies required to generate the power.
Demand for electric power for production and warmth in the cities and for coal for rural household heating has simultaneously spiked because of heavy snows and unusually cold weather. The snows also make movement of supplies from the inland mines more expensive, time consuming and less reliable. Power rationing has been imposed in some southern cities and others are experiencing blackouts. The administration warned travelers and power plants to brace for more disruptions
One of the four contradictions of modern China is the tension between market driven and statist economic practices operating side by side. The majority of the population lives in the countryside and relies on statist practices as the economic and social safety net. The main engines of growth are in the coastal regions which draw resources from the countryside at controlled rates but sell at market prices. It all works until it fails, as now in the energy sector. Chinese authorities admitted having only 8 days’ emergency coal supplies left. Power generation and the need to keep warm always seem to lag in economies. It is a manifestation of socialist efficiency taken to its inefficient extreme.
The Chinese will fix the shortage, but probably not before a few people freeze to death in the countryside. They appear unable to fix the internal contradictions without risking massive unrest. There is no systemic redundancy and apparently no unused capacity.
Lest capitalists point the finger, capitalist efficiency leads to its own version of crazy by creating single points of failure. For example, every time there is a huge storm in Florida, it disrupts the railroads as far north as Washington, DC, including commuter rail service, because the computer center for the quadrant is … you guessed it.
The underlying issue is security not just planning or operations. Single points of failure in industries and infrastructures constitute risk factors – attractors-- for terrorist attacks that could have systemic impact far more significant any physical damage that might occur.
Pakistan: Local news services reported 40 militants have been killed and 30 captured in fighting between militants and security forces in South Waziristan according to military press releases. They reported eight soldiers have been killed and 32 others wounded in raids on militant hideouts backed by artillery and helicopters.
It is not clear that the Pakistan Army, instead of the Frontier Corps and Constabulary, is executing the raids. More likely it is providing gunship and artillery support for the paramilitary forces that are retaliating for the overrun of several frontier forts in the past week. That humiliation could not go unpunished for long.
Another point is that the new Chief of the Army Staff just completed an inspection tour of the northwest border regions. General Kayani might be demonstrating that he has a more professional approach to dealing with militants than Musharraf ever showed. The Army must still act in a support role most of the time because of the risk of a tribal uprising and Army reluctance to fight in support of civil authority. Nevertheless, it can provide leadership and initiative to prod the paramilitary forces to more efficient and professional operations. As one news commentator said, with only “one” job, the new Chief can actually get things done. The apparent success of the new operations so soon after Kayani’s visit seems more than coincidental.
Pakistan-US: The BBC, al Jazeera and other news services headlined the news that the US is discussing or considering sending US troops into Pakistan. During today’s press conference, Secretary Gates made it clear that the US will not send troops to Pakistan unless Pakistan requests it. The US will abide by whatever agreements it has made or will make in the future.
The news accounts tended to ignore the distinction between discussions, contingency plans or war games and operational plans. The coverage was misleading but none of the services as yet have carried Secretary’s Gates thoughtful and succinct denial.
Kuwait: Tonight’s Good News. The Minister of Education and the female cabinet minister, Nouria Sbeih, has survived a no-confidence vote in parliament. She was accused by conservative and Islamist members of ignoring a sex segregation law at universities and presiding over a drop in educational standards. She denied the allegations and won the confidence vote by 27 to 19. The ultra devout members also criticized her for refusing to wear a headscarf when she was sworn into the cabinet.
The vote split Islamists in parliament, with the main Islamist bloc voting in favor of Ms. Sbeih. Women won the right to vote and run for office in Kuwait in 2005. The ultras have not given up.
Turkey: The Justice and Development government and a conservative Muslim party joined to repeal Turkey’s official ban on women wearing Islamic headscarves at universities. In a statement, the AKP and the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) said: "The issue is a bleeding wound in higher education and needs to be resolved." The two parties together control enough seats to end the ban in a parliamentary vote as early as next week.
The issue of headscarves for devout Muslim women is more than a manifestation of freedom of speech and religion, it is a political cause celebre, masquerading as religious observance. All the players – the politicians, the Army and the university students -- know the ban is a pillar of secularism in higher education.
Less than a year after the political standoff between the secularists and the Justice and Development Party over the election of Abdullah Gul as Turkey’s president – the first non-secularist to hold the job – the governing party has made another small move to undercut secular government.
The ban is symbolic of the Army’s efforts to preserve the secular legacy of Kemal. In the past the Army has been called on to enforce the ban on universities … almost as bizarre in reverse as Ahmadi-nejad’s sartorial police requiring the headscarf and telling Iranian women how to dress modestly.
As a basis for predicting the direction of policy, NightWatch judges the Justice and Development Party is determined to convert Turkey into an Islamic republic over time. The tactics are more subtle and gradual but the end game is unchanged. This vote will pass next week and more like it will follow. Some commentators assess that a coup is not possible in Turkey. It is not ripe, yet, but it is all too possible in a new disguise.
Ecuador: Thousands of opposition protesters have marched in Guayaquil to protest government plans for greater state control over the economy. The march was led by Jaime Nebot, who charges that President, Rafael Correa, is seeking too much power. "He will never push us around. We will not be guinea pigs of a failed experiment," Nebot was quoted by Reuters as saying. Protesters waved flags and chanted, "Down with Correa."
Correa was elected in 2007 based on his promise to overhaul Ecuador's foreign debt and renegotiate oil contracts. Nebot, one of the most well-known politicians in Ecuador, told Reuters he will run for mayor again in order to use his popularity to urge voters to reject Correa. "If the government does something good, I do not oppose that. But if they seek to destroy Guayaquil and if the president wants to become an emperor ... then I will fiercely oppose that," he said.
Last week, Correa gathered a similar crowd of about 40,000 supporters in Guayaquil to mark his first year in office, in which he has succeeded in regaining most institutional powers from the opposition but also seen his popularity fade. His popularity has dropped to 57 per cent, with polls claiming voters are opposed to his style of government and the failing economy.
As Correa encountered problems in implementing reforms, he has followed Chavez’ lead in amassing and centralizing power in his office, confident in his own vision for reform despite opposition. News of the landslide Venezuelan rejection of Chavez’ constitutional amendments last month does not seem to have reached Correa. To his credit, Chavez abided by the results of the vote, vowing to subvert the electorate more gradually over time. That will be Correa’s challenge as well.
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The author is John McCreary whose bio is available through this link: http://www.afcea.org/mission/intel/resource.asp#nw
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